-- 周四，美国据称拒绝了伊朗提出的重开霍尔木兹海峡的提议，受此消息影响，原油价格涨跌互现，布伦特原油价格逼近每桶125美元大关。 布伦特原油期货上涨3.3%，至每桶121.97美元，盘中一度触及每桶126美元的高点；而近月穆尔班原油期货下跌3.4%，至每桶109.61美元。 澳新银行分析师表示：“随着供应短缺加剧，布伦特原油价格突破每桶120美元。” 澳新银行补充道：“由于霍尔木兹海峡无限期关闭的前景令市场情绪承压，原油价格的上涨势头丝毫没有放缓的迹象。” 外交关系的破裂，加上特朗普总统指示做好长期封锁的准备，使得交易员们不得不为长期供应短缺做好准备，而仅靠需求下降可能无法弥补这一缺口。 近几周来，多位分析师表示，每桶100美元左右的油价并未反映出冲突对全球能源市场造成的冲击程度，他们预计油价最终会攀升。 荷兰国际集团（ING）表示：“美伊谈判破裂，加上据报道特朗普总统拒绝了伊朗关于重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的提议，令市场对石油供应迅速恢复失去信心。” 荷兰国际集团补充道：“我们估计需求损失约为每日160万桶，这固然可观，但显然不足以弥补我们目前面临的供应缺口。” 分析公司Kpler的数据显示，伊朗仅剩下12至22天的未使用储油能力。 一旦这些储油设施满负荷运转，德黑兰将被迫额外减产150万至160万桶/日。 这样的减产将叠加在因海峡关闭而已造成的约1000万桶/日的减产之上。 荷兰国际集团（ING）分析师警告称，尽管区域需求下降估计约为160万桶/日，但这不足以弥补不断扩大的供应缺口，这意味着价格上涨可能是平衡市场的唯一手段。 美国能源信息署（EIA）周三发布的周报显示，截至4月24日当周，美国原油库存下降620万桶至4.595亿桶，供应趋紧的迹象显现。 与此同时，据报道，特朗普周三表示，阿联酋退出欧佩克的决定可能有助于缓解能源价格上涨。阿联酋在加入欧佩克近六十年后宣布退出，目的是将原油产量提高到接近产能水平。
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