-- 周三盘后交易中，欧洲、中东和非洲地区原油期货价格上涨，原因是霍尔木兹海峡的双重封锁以及特朗普总统对伊朗日益强硬的言论加剧了人们对全球能源供应长期冲击的担忧。 布伦特原油期货上涨7.13%，至每桶119.19美元；穆尔班原油期货上涨2.44%，至每桶109.31美元。 盛宝银行策略师周三在一份报告中指出：“特朗普总统已指示助手准备对伊朗实施长期封锁，以高风险的方式打击伊朗政权的财政，迫使伊朗放弃其核计划。” 据报道，特朗普表示，他将维持对伊朗的海上封锁，直到德黑兰同意达成核协议。他还指出，封锁比轰炸更有效。美国总统周三威胁伊朗，称该国“最好尽快醒悟”。 “伊朗根本就没办法达成一致。他们不知道如何签署无核协议。他们最好赶紧醒悟过来！”特朗普在Truth Social上发帖说道。 旨在结束中东冲突的第二轮美伊会谈近日陷入僵局，双方在谈判中均拒绝让步，德黑兰方面试图将霍尔木兹海峡问题与其核计划分开。 三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）研究分析师金秀珍（Soojin Kim）表示，由于市场关注美伊和平谈判陷入僵局以及霍尔木兹海峡持续近乎关闭，原油价格依然居高不下。 有报道称伊朗原油储存空间即将耗尽，美国对伊朗的海上封锁似乎正在给伊朗施加压力，这可能会加速伊朗的减产。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，伊朗的主要石油出口码头哈尔克岛的储存能力已接近饱和，这可能迫使伊朗政府减少原油产量，并对伊朗的石油基础设施造成损害。 金表示：“伊朗也面临日益严峻的存储压力，这可能迫使其进一步减产，与此同时，美国正持续收紧对与伊朗石油相关的中国炼油企业的制裁。” 金还表示，持续不断的中东冲突已经引发了更广泛的地区性变化，包括阿联酋决定下个月退出欧佩克。 荷兰国际集团(ING)的策略师表示：“阿联酋选择在这个时候退出欧佩克是经过深思熟虑的。”他们补充说，在供应严重中断的时期宣布退出，可以最大限度地减少对市场的影响。 在供应方面，美国已经开始出现供应紧张的迹象。美国能源信息署(EIA)的最新数据显示，截至4月24日当周，美国原油库存下降620万桶，至4.595亿桶。
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International
Fed Chair Powell Says He Will Remain as Governor for Period of Time After Chair Term Ends
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday at a press conference that he will remain on the Federal Reserve board for a period of time after his term as chair ends on May 15, noting the recent attacks on the Fed and saying that "the things that have happened really in the last three months I think left me no choice but to stay until I see them through at least that long."An investigation into Powell's actions as chair during the remodeling of headquarters at the Fed was halted by the Department of Justice, but it could be reopened if the Fed's inspector general finds wrongdoing, providing uncertainty."I have said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality and I stand by that," Powell said. "I am encouraged by recent developments, and I am watching the remaining steps in this process carefully."Powell said that his decision to remain on board has nothing to do with political comments, but rather his concern about the recent attack on the Fed by the Trump administration."After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as governor for a period of time to be determined," Powell said. "I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There is only one chair of the Federal Reserve.""I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so," he added.At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target rate at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, but there were dissents in favor of both a lowering of the policy rate by one member and in favor of eliminating the bias toward easing in the statement by three members.
Oil & Energy
UAE Pushes for Greater Control Over Oil Output, Limited Near-Term Market Impact, RBC Says
The UAE's decision to leave OPEC is unlikely to disrupt oil markets in the near term, but points to a broader strategic realignment as the Gulf producer seeks greater control over its output policy amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Tuesday.The UAE has for years pushed to monetize investments in expanding crude capacity and promoting its Murban benchmark, a strategy that has at times strained relations within OPEC.RBC analysts said disputes over production baselines, including a July 2021 standoff that delayed an agreement for nearly two weeks, underscored friction between the UAE and other members over output quotas.The analysts said the UAE's departure reflects a continuation of these tensions, as the country has consistently sought higher production targets. A subsequent push in 2023 to revise its baseline led to a complex redistribution of quotas, reducing allocations for some African producers.However, despite the policy shift, the UAE is not expected to significantly increase production beyond levels seen in early 2026 once the conflict subsides.The Gulf state has been operating close to its current capacity, and post-war reconstruction demands are likely to temper any rapid supply increases.UAE authorities, in a statement, said it would continue to bring additional barrels to market "in a gradual and measured manner," aligned with demand and prevailing conditions.RBC analysts said this suggests spare capacity within the global system will remain concentrated in Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future.The move comes at a critical moment in the regional conflict with Iran, which has heightened concerns over energy security, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.The UAE has been among the most vocal Gulf states opposing any scenario in which Iran maintains influence over the passage, citing repeated drone and missile attacks on its territory.The country's increasingly assertive stance appears to align more closely with Israel than with some Gulf neighbors.RBC analysts expect closer cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Israel on energy security and critical infrastructure once the conflict ends, potentially including joint investments and expanded defense agreements in strategic areas such as the Red Sea.The analyst said the UAE's exit does not signal an imminent fragmentation of OPEC. With no immediate requirement for coordinated production cuts and many member states focused on rebuilding capacity after the conflict, the group is expected to remain broadly intact in the near term.