-- 由於伊朗宣布霍爾木茲海峽已開放，投資者對中東局勢的樂觀情緒升溫，標普500指數本週上漲4.5%，創下歷史新高。 標普500指數本週收在7126.06點，創史上最高收盤價。該市場基準指數週五盤中一度觸及7,147.52點的新高。 本週標普500指數連續第三週上漲，使其今年迄今的漲幅轉正。該指數2026年至今累計上漲4.1%，4月累計上漲9.2%。 根據彭博社報道，美國總統川普表示，伊朗已同意無限期暫停其核計劃，並且不會收到美國凍結的任何資金。彭博社報道稱，川普在周五的電話採訪中表示，結束戰爭的協議已基本完成，關於達成持久協議的談判「可能」將在本週末舉行。 週五早些時候，伊朗宣佈在美伊停火協議剩餘期限內重新開放霍爾木茲海峽。 本週，標普500指數11個板塊中，科技板塊漲幅最大，上漲8.1%，其次是可選消費板塊（上漲6.6%）和通訊服務板塊（上漲6.3%）。房地產和金融部門也表現強勁，漲幅均超過3%，工業和醫療保健部門也小幅上漲。 甲骨文（ORCL）股價領漲科技板塊，飆漲27%。該公司表示，計劃擴展其多雲網路功能，以實現甲骨文雲基礎設施與亞馬遜（AMZN）旗下亞馬遜網路服務（AWS）之間的連接。 特斯拉（TSLA）股價上漲15%，提振了選用消費股。路透社引述知情人士消息報道，這家電動車製造商正在開發一款新型緊湊型低成本電動SUV，旨在拓展其產品線，使其超越特斯拉Model Y和Model 3。此外，彭博社引述匿名消息人士報道稱，特斯拉計畫最快下週在印度推出Model Y的六座長軸距版本。 本週四大板塊下跌，其中能源板塊領跌，跌幅達3.5%，公用事業板塊下跌1.7%。原料和必需消費品板塊也小幅走低。 能源板塊下跌的原因是伊朗宣布重新開放霍爾木茲海峽，導致原油期貨價格下跌。跌幅最大的股票包括Coterra Energy (CTRA)、Devon Energy (DVN)和APA Corp. (APA)，均下跌7.5%。 預計下週將公佈包括特斯拉、通用電氣航空航太公司 (GE)、通用電氣威諾瓦公司 (GEV)、聯合健康集團 (UNH)、菲利普莫里斯國際公司 (PM)、國際商業機器公司 (IBM)、美國電話電報公司 (AT&T)、波音公司 (BA)、英特爾公司 (INTC)、美國運通報公司 (AT&T)、波音公司 (BA)、英特爾公司 (INTC)、美國運通公司 (AXP) 的聯合鐵路公司。 經濟數據將包括3月零售銷售和成屋銷售數據，以及4月消費者信心指數的最終數據。
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Sectors
Crude Oil Prices Rise on Stalled U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Crude oil prices rose on Monday as talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran remain frozen and flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted.Brent crude at last look gained 2.7% to US$108.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.4% to $96.63/barrel. The U.S. and Iran appear to still be far apart on issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the strait, Reuters said in a Monday report."The diplomatic stand-off means that every day 10-13 million barrels of oil fail to get to the international market, worsening an already tight oil balance. Therefore, there is only one direction for oil prices to go," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90/barrel for Brent and $83/barrel for WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East, the report said.
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Commodities
Japan Resorts to More Coal, Nuclear During Energy Crisis Sidelines Renewables, Says IEEFA
Japan is leaning on higher nuclear output and ramping up use of coal in power generation as contingency measures in the face of the global energy crisis, but these measures are simultaneously smothering renewables, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Monday.Temporary increased use of coal was decided upon to reduce the need for now-scarce LNG while the restart of some nuclear power plants is also providing additional resilience to supply shocks which have hit Asian nations hardest.IEEFA said this risks displacing domestic renewable energy which can supply just as much energy security but lower cost and it could also increase curtailment and undermine investment in more renewables, up-ending progress on decarbonization.Most of Japan's coal imports, about 71%, come from Australia, making it a safe option that reduces exposure to disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, the IEEFA report noted.But a shortage of diesel for plant operations at J-Power's Matsuura 2 gigawatt coal-fired power station slashed its output by 50% while the JFE Steel Fukuyama facility was halted over a shortage of heavy oil, underscoring that coal is not fully detached from oil and gas's geopolitical risk.Japan typically imports 4 million tons of LNG that pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year, representing about 6% of its total imports.As of March, 15 of Japan's 36 nuclear reactors were operating, as that sector recovers from the multiple impacts of the Fukushima disaster.They generate a combined 37 GW. Bringing the remainder online could cut Japan's LNG needs by 12.5 million tonnes, IEEFA said. Regulatory changes in early April were introduced, facilitating more restarts.Backing up its argument that more coal and nuclear, both less flexible power sources, could increase curtailment of renewables, IEEFA said that each nuclear restart in Japan has been followed by a reduction in renewables generation.Curtailments in Japan have risen to 1.9 terrawatt hours by 2023, up from 100 GWh in 2018. In the first half of 2025, curtailments were faster still at 1.7 terrawatt hours for a six-month period.The fact that output from coal and nuclear can not rapidly be increased or slowed means it can be difficult to make room for renewable supply on the grid when its output rises.IEEFA said that limitations in Japan's grid infrastructure is an additional constraint that limits absorption of renewable power and led to a situation in March where it curtailed renewables while importing power from abroad.IEEFA suggests that the addition of battery storage to the grid could go some way to boosting its flexibility.Curtailment of renewables output has another inherent problem in that it leads to a less favourable economic case for later additions of zero carbon generation capacity, the report said, all the more so because Japan does not compensate renewables suppliers for curtailments, a practice common in Europe.Developers are adding battery storage as a work-around to that, securing contracts that remunerate battery-discharged electricity instead of directly generated then consumed electricity.The addition of batteries adds to project costs however at a time when investor interest has yet to turn into large scale deployment, with erosion of revenue support measures a further deterrent, IEEFA said.
Research
UOB Kay Hian Upgrades Hana Microelectronics to Buy from Hold; Price Target is THB38
Hana Microelectronics (BKK:HANA) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 25.44 Thai baht, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
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