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International
Fed Chair Powell Says He Will Remain as Governor for Period of Time After Chair Term Ends
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday at a press conference that he will remain on the Federal Reserve board for a period of time after his term as chair ends on May 15, noting the recent attacks on the Fed and saying that "the things that have happened really in the last three months I think left me no choice but to stay until I see them through at least that long."An investigation into Powell's actions as chair during the remodeling of headquarters at the Fed was halted by the Department of Justice, but it could be reopened if the Fed's inspector general finds wrongdoing, providing uncertainty."I have said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality and I stand by that," Powell said. "I am encouraged by recent developments, and I am watching the remaining steps in this process carefully."Powell said that his decision to remain on board has nothing to do with political comments, but rather his concern about the recent attack on the Fed by the Trump administration."After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as governor for a period of time to be determined," Powell said. "I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There is only one chair of the Federal Reserve.""I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so," he added.At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target rate at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, but there were dissents in favor of both a lowering of the policy rate by one member and in favor of eliminating the bias toward easing in the statement by three members.
Oil & Energy
UAE Pushes for Greater Control Over Oil Output, Limited Near-Term Market Impact, RBC Says
The UAE's decision to leave OPEC is unlikely to disrupt oil markets in the near term, but points to a broader strategic realignment as the Gulf producer seeks greater control over its output policy amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Tuesday.The UAE has for years pushed to monetize investments in expanding crude capacity and promoting its Murban benchmark, a strategy that has at times strained relations within OPEC.RBC analysts said disputes over production baselines, including a July 2021 standoff that delayed an agreement for nearly two weeks, underscored friction between the UAE and other members over output quotas.The analysts said the UAE's departure reflects a continuation of these tensions, as the country has consistently sought higher production targets. A subsequent push in 2023 to revise its baseline led to a complex redistribution of quotas, reducing allocations for some African producers.However, despite the policy shift, the UAE is not expected to significantly increase production beyond levels seen in early 2026 once the conflict subsides.The Gulf state has been operating close to its current capacity, and post-war reconstruction demands are likely to temper any rapid supply increases.UAE authorities, in a statement, said it would continue to bring additional barrels to market "in a gradual and measured manner," aligned with demand and prevailing conditions.RBC analysts said this suggests spare capacity within the global system will remain concentrated in Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future.The move comes at a critical moment in the regional conflict with Iran, which has heightened concerns over energy security, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.The UAE has been among the most vocal Gulf states opposing any scenario in which Iran maintains influence over the passage, citing repeated drone and missile attacks on its territory.The country's increasingly assertive stance appears to align more closely with Israel than with some Gulf neighbors.RBC analysts expect closer cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Israel on energy security and critical infrastructure once the conflict ends, potentially including joint investments and expanded defense agreements in strategic areas such as the Red Sea.The analyst said the UAE's exit does not signal an imminent fragmentation of OPEC. With no immediate requirement for coordinated production cuts and many member states focused on rebuilding capacity after the conflict, the group is expected to remain broadly intact in the near term.
Oil & Energy
Update: Market Chatter: Trump Maintains Iran Blockade, Rejects Proposal; US Prepares Potential Strike Plan
(Updated with US Central Command's response in the 16th paragraph.)US President Donald Trump said he will maintain a US naval blockade on Iran, rejecting Tehran's proposal while pushing for a stricter nuclear agreement, Axios reported Wednesday.Trump dismissed Iran's request to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks, choosing instead to sustain pressure until Tehran agrees to US demands.US Central Command has drafted plans for a short but intense strike campaign targeting Iranian infrastructure to break the current negotiating impasse, three sources familiar with the matter told Axios.Officials expect any military action to hit key infrastructure, after which Washington would push Iran back into negotiations with greater concessions, the sources said.Trump said he prefers the blockade over immediate military action, calling it more effective leverage, and he has not authorized strikes as of Tuesday night, according to the sources.The US President views the blockade as his primary tool but remains open to military action if Iran refuses to compromise on nuclear demands, the report added, citing sources."The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing," Trump told Axios.He added that Iran wanted to settle, "They don't want me to keep the blockade. I don't want to [lift the blockade], because I don't want them to have a nuclear weapon."The president said Iran faces severe economic strain under the blockade and suggested Tehran seeks a deal to ease restrictions and resume exports, according to the report.He added that Iran's oil storage and pipeline systems are approaching critical limits and are "getting close to exploding" as exports stall. However, some analysts question the immediacy of that risk, the report said.An Iranian security official warned that the blockade will trigger an unprecedented response if it continues, signaling rising tensions, according to state-affiliated Press TV, cited by the report.The source said Iranian forces have shown restraint to allow diplomacy but stressed patience will not last if pressure tactics persist, the report added.Iran's military leadership believes a strong retaliatory move may become necessary if negotiations fail and the blockade remains in place, according to the report.On Wednesday, Trump posted on Truth Social, "Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!"The White House did not immediately respond to' request for comment.The US Central Command said it had no comment in response to' query.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)