-- 週五早盤,油價下跌,此前有報導稱,巴基斯坦官員預計美國和伊朗將舉行新一輪會談。 5月交割的西德州中質原油期貨價格下跌1.07美元,至每桶94.78美元;5月交割的布蘭特原油期貨價格下跌0.42美元,至每桶104.65美元。 彭博新聞社報道稱,伊朗外長阿巴斯·阿拉格奇及其談判團隊預計將於週五晚些時候抵達伊斯蘭堡,與已抵達的美國代表團舉行會談。該報告令油價從隔夜高點回落,市場預期雙方將達成協議,重新開放被封鎖的霍爾木茲海峽。 霍爾木茲海峽是波斯灣國家石油出口的咽喉要道。在2月28日戰爭爆發前,這些國家供應了全球20%的石油日需求。戰爭也導致柴油、航空煤油以及石化原料和化肥的運輸受阻。 盛寶銀行大宗商品策略主管奧勒·漢森寫道:“最初與霍爾木茲海峽實際關閉相關的原油供應衝擊,如今已演變為多商品供應中斷。其影響不再局限於能源市場,而是蔓延至工業生產、運輸,並最終波及農業和食品價格。” 然而,戰爭的快速結束不太可能迅速緩解這場史上規模最大的能源供應衝擊。據《華盛頓郵報》週四報道,美國五角大廈警告稱,清除海峽中的水雷可能需要六個月的時間。 SEB Research的大宗商品分析師奧勒·赫瓦爾比寫道:“這與金融市場預期的時間完全不同。即使明天達成政治協議,也無法立即重新開放海峽。”
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