-- (更新內容包括鮑威爾宣布留任的消息,以及道明經濟評論。) 聯準會週三維持基準貸款利率不變,稱中東衝突加劇了美國經濟前景的不確定性。 聯準會聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)將利率維持在3.50%至3.75%的區間不變,符合華爾街的預期。這是FOMC連續第三次暫停升息。 去年,由於對勞動市場的擔憂,FOMC曾連續三次降息,每次降息25個基點。 FOMC在周三結束為期兩天的會議後表示:“中東局勢的發展加劇了經濟前景的高度不確定性。” 在會後記者會上,聯準會主席鮑威爾表示,他將在5月15日任期屆滿後無限期繼續擔任聯準會理事。 美國檢察官珍妮·皮羅近期結束了對鮑威爾的刑事調查,轉而要求聯準會內部監督機構——監察長辦公室——調查聯準會華盛頓總部翻新工程的成本超支問題。 鮑威爾說:“我曾說過,在調查徹底、透明、最終結束之前,我不會離開理事會,我堅持這一立場。我對近期的進展感到鼓舞,並將密切關注這一進程的後續步驟。” 聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)表示,聯準會理事史蒂芬米蘭在會議上持反對意見,傾向降息0.25個百分點。克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行主席貝絲·哈馬克、明尼阿波利斯聯邦儲備銀行主席尼爾·卡什卡利和達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行主席洛里·洛根支持該政策決定,但反對在聲明中保留寬鬆傾向。 聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)表示,就業成長「平均而言」仍然較低,基本上重申了其先前的評估,同時指出能源價格上漲導致通膨「偏高」。上個月,聯準會將通膨描述為「略微偏高」。 委員會表示,近幾個月來失業率「變化不大」。 FOMC重申其先前立場,表示:“在考慮對聯邦基金利率目標區間進行進一步調整的幅度和時機時,委員會將仔細評估新數據、不斷變化的前景以及風險平衡。” 道明經濟諮詢公司在報告中指出,政策聲明僅有細微變化,但總體情緒「略微偏鷹派,一些參與者投票反對維持當前的寬鬆傾向」。 當天早些時候,美國參議院銀行委員會投票通過了凱文沃什(Kevin Warsh)的聯準會主席提名,該提名已提交至共和黨控制的參議院。 沃什是美國總統唐納德·特朗普提名的接替鮑威爾的人選。川普曾多次批評鮑威爾領導的聯準會在降息問題上態度謹慎。 道明銀行高級經濟學家托馬斯·費爾特梅特(Thomas Feltmate)在一份報告中指出:“沃什領導的美聯儲不太可能迅速轉向降息。決策由多數票決定,而且很明顯,在經濟韌性強勁、通脹壓力依然高企的情況下,許多參與者都不願進一步降低利率。” 聯準會政策制定者的下次會議定於6月16日至17日舉行。 費爾特梅特表示:“我們預計美聯儲至少在夏季之前將維持利率不變,如果通脹率顯示出更有力的跡象表明其正在向美聯儲2%的目標靠攏,則今年晚些時候可能會進一步降息。” 美國勞工統計局本月稍早公佈的數據顯示,受美以衝突推高能源價格的影響,3月份美國消費者通膨率飆升至近四年來的最高月度水準。 據報道,川普拒絕了伊朗提出的解除對其港口海上封鎖的提議後,油價週三大幅上漲,布蘭特原油價格逼近每桶120美元。
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