-- (更新内容包括杰罗姆·鲍威尔宣布留任的消息,以及道明经济评论。) 美联储周三维持基准贷款利率不变,称中东冲突加剧了美国经济前景的不确定性。 美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间不变,符合华尔街的预期。这是FOMC连续第三次暂停加息。 去年,由于对劳动力市场的担忧,FOMC曾连续三次降息,每次降息25个基点。 FOMC在周三结束为期两天的会议后表示:“中东局势的发展加剧了经济前景的高度不确定性。” 在会后新闻发布会上,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示,他将在5月15日任期届满后无限期继续担任美联储理事。 美国检察官珍妮·皮罗近期结束了对鲍威尔的刑事调查,转而要求美联储内部监督机构——监察长办公室——调查美联储华盛顿总部翻新工程的成本超支问题。 鲍威尔说:“我曾说过,在调查彻底、透明、最终结束之前,我不会离开理事会,我坚持这一立场。我对近期的进展感到鼓舞,并将密切关注这一进程的后续步骤。” 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)表示,美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰在会议上持反对意见,倾向于降息0.25个百分点。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克、明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利和达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根支持该政策决定,但反对在声明中保留宽松倾向。 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)表示,就业增长“平均而言”仍然较低,基本重申了其之前的评估,同时指出能源价格上涨导致通胀“偏高”。上个月,美联储将通胀描述为“略微偏高”。 委员会表示,近几个月来失业率“变化不大”。 FOMC重申其先前立场,表示:“在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行进一步调整的幅度和时机时,委员会将仔细评估新数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡。” 道明经济咨询公司在一份报告中指出,政策声明仅有细微变化,但总体情绪“略微偏鹰派,一些参与者投票反对维持当前的宽松倾向”。 当天早些时候,美国参议院银行委员会投票通过了凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)的美联储主席提名,该提名已提交至共和党控制的参议院。 沃什是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提名的接替鲍威尔的人选。特朗普曾多次批评鲍威尔领导的美联储在降息问题上态度谨慎。 道明银行高级经济学家托马斯·费尔特梅特(Thomas Feltmate)在一份报告中指出:“沃什领导的美联储不太可能迅速转向降息。决策由多数票决定,而且很明显,在经济韧性强劲、通胀压力依然高企的情况下,许多参与者都不愿进一步降低利率。” 美联储政策制定者的下次会议定于6月16日至17日举行。 费尔特梅特表示:“我们预计美联储至少在夏季之前将维持利率不变,如果通胀率显示出更有力的迹象表明其正在向美联储2%的目标靠拢,则今年晚些时候可能会进一步降息。” 美国劳工统计局本月早些时候公布的数据显示,受美以冲突推高能源价格的影响,3月份美国消费者通胀率飙升至近四年来的最高月度水平。 据报道,特朗普拒绝了伊朗提出的解除对其港口海上封锁的提议后,油价周三大幅上涨,布伦特原油价格逼近每桶120美元。
Related Articles
Research Alert: Cake: Q1 Beat On Cheesecake Factory Strength; Margins Stable
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:CAKE posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.05, up 13% Y/Y and beating the $1.01 consensus estimate, while total revenue of $979M, up 5.6%, also beat the $965M consensus. Adjusted operating income of $57M (up 7%) exceeded the $55M estimate, with operating margins stable at 5.8% despite food and labor cost inflation of 5% each. This marks the third consecutive quarter of margin stability, demonstrating operational leverage as management's staff retention and supply chain initiatives continue to offset volatile costs, with results exceeding expectations despite weather-related impacts. Management reaffirmed guidance to open up to 26 new restaurants in 2026, including up to six Cheesecake Factory locations and multiple North Italia, Flower Child, and FRC concepts. The company maintained strong liquidity of $601.6M, with no outstanding debt and returned capital through $19.2M in share repurchases and a $0.30 quarterly dividend, reflecting confidence in cash generation.
Research Alert: Eg Posts Mixed Q1 Results Amid Restructuring
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:EG reported Q1 operating EPS of $16.08 versus $6.45 a year ago, exceeding our $15.27 estimate and the $13.96 consensus view. Operating revenues declined 4.4% on a 7.2% drop in earned premiums and 15% rise in investment income, while the combined ratio improved dramatically to 91.2% from 102.7%. We applaud EG's strategic restructuring, including the sale of renewal rights to its retail commercial insurance business to focus on its core reinsurance operations, which account for over 75% of its premium base. EG expects pretax charges of $250-350M over 2025-2026 and has entered an adverse development cover transaction covering $5.4B of liability reserves. However, we remain concerned that becoming a pure-play reinsurer may not expand valuation multiples given EG's mixed underwriting track record. We see execution risk in this strategy, particularly amid a softening reinsurance pricing environment. Despite the Q1 EPS beat, we remain cautious at this juncture.
Research Alert: Flowserve: Cut Sales Outlook Overshadows Q1 Beat
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:FLS delivered a Q1 beat with adjusted EPS of $0.85 (+18.1% Y/Y), exceeding consensus by $0.05. The beat was driven by sustained margin expansion of 230 bps to 15.1%, resulting from pricing execution and 80/20 efficiency initiatives. However, total sales declined 6.7% due to Middle East headwinds. Bookings showed a favorable mix shift toward higher-margin aftermarket services; aftermarket bookings declined just 1.2% to $680M, while original equipment bookings fell 13% to $468M. Additionally, FLS secured over $110M in nuclear bookings, continuing momentum in this strategic long-cycle market. Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.00-$4.20. It also updated organic sales growth expectations to a range of (1%) to +2%, from the prior +1% to +3% range. The US-Iran conflict created a ~$50M headwind to bookings and a $25M impact to sales, resulting in a $9M reduction in operating income. An unexpected tariff recovery, however, supported the guidance reiteration.