-- 周四，西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）收盘走低，此前亚洲交易时段曾触及四年高位。受美国可能结束与伊朗停火协议的报道影响，WTI原油价格回落。这场史上最大的供应冲击对依赖波斯湾石油供应的非洲大陆打击尤为严重，这些石油目前被封锁在霍尔木兹海峡后。 6月交割的WTI原油期货价格下跌1.81美元，收于每桶105.07美元，此前一度触及每桶110.93美元。6月交割的布伦特原油期货价格下跌4.12美元，收于每桶113.91美元，此前一度触及每桶126.34美元，创下2022年以来的最高水平。 自2月28日战争爆发以来，WTI原油价格已上涨59%。2月28日，在美国和以色列发动袭击后，伊朗封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，该海峡是全球约20%石油供应的关键咽喉要道。美国目前封锁了伊朗港口，伊朗要求在恢复和平谈判前解除封锁，但美国拒绝这样做，导致伊朗持续遭受史上最严重的供应冲击。 此次短缺对亚洲的影响最为严重，亚洲购买了波斯湾80%的出口产品。各国竞相抬高现货价格，并越来越多地寻求动用中国的战略储备以避免短缺。 “有报道称，一些（亚洲）国家的农村地区持续出现燃料短缺，而燃料分配似乎有些混乱。我们看到越来越多的政府间协议，例如中国允许向友好国家出口部分燃料，泰国也在考虑向邻国提供更多支持，”麦格理集团全球能源策略师维卡斯·德维迪写道。 然而，目前几乎没有任何迹象表明双方将就结束战争和重新开放被封锁的海峡进行谈判。原定于上周末在巴基斯坦举行的美伊会谈因美国拒绝伊朗解除对其港口封锁的要求而未能举行。《华尔街日报》报道称，美国总统特朗普正呼吁其他国家加入一个旨在重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的联盟，美国政府称之为“海上自由联盟”。美国正寻求其驻外使馆敦促盟友加入该联盟。与此同时，特朗普警告称，除非伊朗同意终止其核计划，否则霍尔木兹海峡的封锁将持续下去。
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TSX Closer: Index Up For the First Day In Six On Bargain Hunting, Economic Rebound In Q1
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its first wining session in six, recovered all the 630 points and more lost over the prior five sessions, on some bargain hunting and a first-quarter rebound for the Canadian economy.The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 645.94 points, or 1.9% to close at 33,964.33, with most sectors higher, led by Base Metals, up near 3%, even with gold prices deflated. Even Energy was up 0.8%, despite lower oil prices.The Battery Metals Index lost 2.7%.On the economy, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank noted Canada's economy rebounded in Q1 and "might be performing a smidge better" than the Bank of Canada's published forecast yesterday. "Still," Holt said, "it's backward data that settles nothing much other than to reject gloomier consensus views on the underlying performance of the economy coming into the start of the year."Holt noted the economy grew by 0.17% month over month seasonally-adjusted, rounded up to 0.2% on screens. Statcan's preliminary guidance for March was that GDP was unchanged, absent any details. What this translates into is Q1 GDP tracking growth of 1.7% on a quarter over quarter SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), a rebound from the 0.3% q/q SAAR contraction in Q4, "with an asterisk beside both readings", Holt added.That asterisk speaks to the fact that we're using monthly, production-side GDP accounts, Holt said. The BoC and the street focuses upon more complete quarterly GDP accounts that also consider how activity was generated, such as by considering swings in inventory investment, he added.Holt said the difference may be material. Q4 GDP in expenditure-based terms shrank by -0.6% q/q SAAR because inventory depletion drove a 4.2 percentage point weighted drag against GDP economy. Final domestic demand excludes inventory effects and it grew by 2.3% q/q SAAR in Q4. "We don't have the complete inventory and trade picture for Q1 yet and so there continues to be some tracking risk," Holt added.Holt cited a chart that shows what drove February GDP. Manufacturing punched above its weight while the rest was an evenly distributed mixture of small growth additions and drags, he said. Some of the drags were weather oriented in his view, like construction, and maybe some of the leisure categories, he added.So, while GDP rebounded, it likely outpaced the supply side of the economy which will probably translate into a narrower output gap when we get the full set of Q1 GDP accounts, according to Holt.Of commodities, gold traded higher by midafternoon Thursday as the dollar dropped after a report showed a key U.S. inflation measure rose last month, while first-quarter gross domestic product rose less than expected. Gold for June delivery was up US$71.30 to US$4,632.80 per ounce, remaining within the US$200 range it has traded within for the past month.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling off four-year highs touched overnight during Asian trade on a report the U.S. may end the ceasefire with Iran as the largest-ever supply shock hits hardest for the continent that relies on Persian Gulf supplies now trapped behind the closed Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$1.81 to settle at US$105.07 per barrel after touching US$110.93 overnight, while June Brent oil was last seen down US$4.12 to US$113.91, after it reached US$126.34 overnight, the highest since 2022.
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EU Clears Itochu, Peninsula Petroleum Ammonia Marine Fuel Joint Venture
The European Commission on Thursday cleared an Itochu-Peninsula joint venture for ammonia fuel trading, citing limited market share and negligible activity in the European Economic Area.The Commission approved the joint venture between Japan-based Itochu and Peninsula Petroleum, based in Ireland, under the EU Merger Regulation.The companies will focus on marketing services for ammonia bunkering and trading ammonia as a marine fuel, according to the Commission.The Commission found no competition concerns due to the venture's minimal presence in the European Economic Area and the companies' limited combined market positions, following a simplified review process.