-- 週四，西德州中質原油（WTI）收盤走低，此前亞洲交易時段曾觸及四年高點。受美國可能結束與伊朗停火協議的通報影響，WTI原油價格回落。這場史上最大的供應衝擊對依賴波斯灣石油供應的非洲大陸打擊尤為嚴重，這些石油目前被封鎖在霍爾木茲海峽後。 6月交割的WTI原油期貨價格下跌1.81美元，收在每桶105.07美元，先前一度觸及每桶110.93美元。 6月交割的布蘭特原油期貨價格下跌4.12美元，收在每桶113.91美元，此前一度觸及每桶126.34美元，創下2022年以來的最高水準。 自2月28日戰爭爆發以來，WTI原油價格已上漲59%。 2月28日，在美國和以色列發動攻擊後，伊朗封鎖了霍爾木茲海峽，該海峽是全球約20%石油供應的關鍵咽喉要道。美國目前封鎖了伊朗港口，伊朗要求在恢復和平談判前解除封鎖，但美國拒絕這樣做，導致伊朗持續遭受史上最嚴重的供應衝擊。 這次短缺對亞洲的影響最為嚴重，亞洲購買了波斯灣80%的出口產品。各國競相抬高現貨價格，並越來越多地尋求動用中國的戰略儲備以避免短缺。 「有報道稱，一些（亞洲）國家的農村地區持續出現燃料短缺，而燃料分配似乎有些混亂。我們看到越來越多的政府間協議，例如中國允許向友好國家出口部分燃料，泰國也在考慮向鄰國提供更多支持，」麥格理集團全球能源策略師維卡斯·德維迪寫道。 然而，目前幾乎沒有任何跡象表明雙方將就結束戰爭和重新開放被封鎖的海峽進行談判。原定於上週末在巴基斯坦舉行的美伊會談因美國拒絕伊朗解除對其港口封鎖的要求而未能舉行。 《華爾街日報》報道稱，美國總統川普正呼籲其他國家加入一個旨在重新開放霍爾木茲海峽的聯盟，美國政府稱之為「海上自由聯盟」。美國正尋求其駐外使館敦促盟友加入該聯盟。同時，川普警告稱，除非伊朗同意終止其核子計劃，否則霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖將持續下去。
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TSX Closer: Index Up For the First Day In Six On Bargain Hunting, Economic Rebound In Q1
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its first wining session in six, recovered all the 630 points and more lost over the prior five sessions, on some bargain hunting and a first-quarter rebound for the Canadian economy.The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 645.94 points, or 1.9% to close at 33,964.33, with most sectors higher, led by Base Metals, up near 3%, even with gold prices deflated. Even Energy was up 0.8%, despite lower oil prices.The Battery Metals Index lost 2.7%.On the economy, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank noted Canada's economy rebounded in Q1 and "might be performing a smidge better" than the Bank of Canada's published forecast yesterday. "Still," Holt said, "it's backward data that settles nothing much other than to reject gloomier consensus views on the underlying performance of the economy coming into the start of the year."Holt noted the economy grew by 0.17% month over month seasonally-adjusted, rounded up to 0.2% on screens. Statcan's preliminary guidance for March was that GDP was unchanged, absent any details. What this translates into is Q1 GDP tracking growth of 1.7% on a quarter over quarter SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), a rebound from the 0.3% q/q SAAR contraction in Q4, "with an asterisk beside both readings", Holt added.That asterisk speaks to the fact that we're using monthly, production-side GDP accounts, Holt said. The BoC and the street focuses upon more complete quarterly GDP accounts that also consider how activity was generated, such as by considering swings in inventory investment, he added.Holt said the difference may be material. Q4 GDP in expenditure-based terms shrank by -0.6% q/q SAAR because inventory depletion drove a 4.2 percentage point weighted drag against GDP economy. Final domestic demand excludes inventory effects and it grew by 2.3% q/q SAAR in Q4. "We don't have the complete inventory and trade picture for Q1 yet and so there continues to be some tracking risk," Holt added.Holt cited a chart that shows what drove February GDP. Manufacturing punched above its weight while the rest was an evenly distributed mixture of small growth additions and drags, he said. Some of the drags were weather oriented in his view, like construction, and maybe some of the leisure categories, he added.So, while GDP rebounded, it likely outpaced the supply side of the economy which will probably translate into a narrower output gap when we get the full set of Q1 GDP accounts, according to Holt.Of commodities, gold traded higher by midafternoon Thursday as the dollar dropped after a report showed a key U.S. inflation measure rose last month, while first-quarter gross domestic product rose less than expected. Gold for June delivery was up US$71.30 to US$4,632.80 per ounce, remaining within the US$200 range it has traded within for the past month.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling off four-year highs touched overnight during Asian trade on a report the U.S. may end the ceasefire with Iran as the largest-ever supply shock hits hardest for the continent that relies on Persian Gulf supplies now trapped behind the closed Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$1.81 to settle at US$105.07 per barrel after touching US$110.93 overnight, while June Brent oil was last seen down US$4.12 to US$113.91, after it reached US$126.34 overnight, the highest since 2022.
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