-- (詳細情報を追加して更新しました。) 米エネルギー情報局(EIA)は水曜日に発表した週報で、5月1日までの週の米国の原油在庫が230万バレル減少し、4億5720万バレルになったと発表した。 EIAによると、現在の原油在庫は、この時期の過去5年間の平均を約1%上回っている。 製油所への原油流入量は、前週比で日量4万2000バレル減少し、5月1日までの週は平均約1600万バレルとなった。原油生産量は日量1万3000バレル減少し、1360万バレルとなった。 商業用原油輸入量は日量27万3000バレル減少し、平均約550万バレルとなった。同機関によると、ガソリンの総在庫量は先週から250万バレル減少し2億1980万バレルとなり、留出油の在庫量は130万バレル減少し1億230万バレルとなった。
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Update: WTI Oil Plunges Following Reports the U.S. and Iran May Be Close to a Peace Deal
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 7% on Wednesday following reports the United States and Iran are close to an agreement to end their war, offering the possibility the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down US$7.19 to settle at US$95.08 per barrel after touching US$88.66 in Asian trade, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$9.13 to US$100.74.The drop came as Axios overnight reported the two countries were close to a negotiated deal to end hostilities, which was later confirmed by U.S. President Trump. In a social media post, Trump said the war "will be at an end" and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to traffic if Iran agrees to a U.S. peace proposal, while threatening to resume bombing if its terms are rejected.Citing Iran's state media, Reuters reported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is claiming the Strait, the chokepoint for exports from Persian Gulf nations supplying 20% of daily oil demand, could reopen if a deal is reached.Oil prices have climbed by more than half since Iran closed the Strait when the war began on Feb. 28, trapping exports of oil, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities in the Persian Gulf. However an end to the war is unlikely to see a quick return to normal. Iranian attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries and restarting production from shut-in oilfields will limit a quick return to pre-war operating levels."If Hormuz were to be reopened, it would take an additional seven months at minimum to fully restore upstream production, assuming no permanent damage and supply chains operate smoothly. A recovery could take longer if there is damage to ports or other transport and loading infrastructure," S&P Global Energy noted.The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported another drop in U.S. commercial oil inventories, saying stocks fell by 2.3-million barrels last week, under the consensus estimate for a drop of 3.3-million barrels among analysts polled by Reuters.
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Crude oil futures retreated in midday trading on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, as signs of progress toward a potential US-Iran agreement eased concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 6.93% to $95.17 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 7.55% to $101.59/bbl.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said tighter US crude inventories and ongoing Middle East supply risks continue to support prices despite improving sentiment around diplomacy.US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels to 457.2 mmbbls in the week ended May 1, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.The agency said crude oil input to refineries dropped by 42,000 barrels per day from the previous week to average about 16 mmb/d in the week ending May 1. Crude oil production dropped by 13,000 b/d to 13.6 mmb/d.Iran is reviewing a new US proposal, and it will convey its response soon through Pakistan, according to media reports. On Wednesday, President Trump said "Great Progress" has been made on a final agreement to end the war with Iran, without giving more details.Trump said the US would pause its efforts to escort ships through the Hormuz Strait, as White House officials reportedly believe Washington is nearing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the conflict.ING strategists said a deal that normalizes oil flows through Hormuz is crucial, with about 13 million b/d of disrupted supply largely offset by declining inventory.However, Rystad Energy strategists said even if an agreement is reached, the impact on actual oil flows would be slower and more conditional than current price action suggests."A deal announcement would move futures further immediately, in fact, even the potential of a deal is already triggering a decline in oil prices. However, the physical market does not run on political timelines," said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, Rystad's chief oil analyst.On the supply front, Venezuelan crude exports climbed to a seven-month high of just over 1.05 million barrels per day in April, more than double from January levels, as a revamped licensing framework and easing trade restrictions supported a broader recovery in flows.Kpler said the rebound was driven by stronger demand from traditional buyers, with the US importing about 400,000 b/d and India taking 384,000 b/d.