-- イランと米国の協議の見通しが不透明な中、ウェスト・テキサス・インターミディエイト(WTI)原油は火曜日に上昇して取引を終えた。 5月渡しのWTI原油は2.52ドル高の1バレル92.13ドルで引け、6月渡しのブレント原油は3.11ドル高の98.59ドルで取引を終えた。 この下落は、2週間の停戦合意が明日期限切れとなる中、両国間の協議で敵対行為を終結させる合意に達するとの期待感の中で起こった。しかし、イランは米国との会談のために交渉団をパキスタンに派遣することを公式には確認していない。ただし、ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル紙は、イランが仲介者に対し、協議にチームを派遣すると伝えたと報じている。 イランが金曜日にホルムズ海峡を一時的に開放し、その後再び閉鎖したことを受け、原油価格は月曜日に急騰した。米国はイランの港湾封鎖を継続し、イランの貨物船を無力化して臨検した。ホルムズ海峡の閉鎖は、世界の石油需要の20%を供給していたペルシャ湾岸諸国からの石油輸出を阻害している。 「水曜日の停戦期限を前にイスラマバードで米国との協議が行われる可能性は、緊張の再燃と相反するシグナルが見られた週末を経てのものであり、ホルムズ海峡は事実上閉鎖されたままだ。通過できた船舶の数は限られており、世界的なエネルギー市場の逼迫を緩和するにはほとんど役に立たず、即座の供給不足が深刻化している。ディーゼル、ジェット燃料、肥料、その他の主要商品の価格高騰を支えている」とサクソバンクは指摘した。 ホルムズ海峡の閉鎖は、アジア諸国が即座の供給確保に奔走する中で、原油のスポット価格を押し上げている。同時に、原油価格、精製製品、LNG、その他ペルシャ湾岸諸国が供給する商品の価格高騰がインフレを加速させ、金利上昇を招くとの懸念も高まっている。
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