-- 日本央行周二宣布，鉴于通胀风险加剧以及经济增长放缓，央行最终决定维持关键利率不变。 日本央行以6比3的投票结果，将短期政策利率维持在0.75%不变，自去年12月以来利率一直保持不变。 日本央行行长上田一夫表示，决策者需要更多时间来评估海湾战争和霍尔木兹海峡关闭将如何影响物价和经济。 为了体现油价上涨的影响，日本央行预测，剔除生鲜食品价格的2026财年核心消费者价格指数（CPI-core）将上涨2.8%，高于1月份预测的1.9%。 此外，日本央行还将本财年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期从之前的1%下调至0.5%。 直到近几年，日本央行面临的挑战并非通胀，而是接近通缩，经济增长也长期低迷，导致一些批评人士称之为“失去的十年”。 近几个季度，央行官员重申，他们希望保持强劲的劳动力需求，以推动实际工资增长，从而促进消费和整体经济扩张。 在今天的预测之前，日本央行还发布了乐观的通胀预期，认为核心CPI将在2026财年回落至央行2%的目标范围内。 事实上，据统计局报告，日本3月份核心CPI同比仅小幅上涨1.8%。 但展望未来，随着油价上涨以及日元兑美元汇率跌至35年来的最低点，日本央行目前预测通胀率将超过央行目标。 日本央行下次会议将于4月27日至28日举行。 荷兰投资公司ING Think表示：“我们仍然认为日本央行有可能在4月28日加息。由于实际利率仍处于深度负值水平，央行成员对通胀预期上升的担忧可能会加剧。”
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