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日本制造业产出增速创12年新高;服务业扩张放缓

-- 日本制造业产出增速创下2014年2月以来的最高水平,但服务业活动增速放缓抑制了这一反弹,导致4月份整体私营部门增速降至四个月以来的最低水平。 标普全球日本综合PMI初值指数从3月份的53.0降至4月份的52.4,但仍高于50.0的荣枯分界线。 尽管整体经济活动已连续13个月扩张,但最新数据显示,4月份的增速为2026年以来最低。 部分制造商因担忧中东战争可能导致未来供应短缺而提高了产量,这推动了制造业的快速增长。 相比之下,服务业活动增速降至11个月以来的最低水平,而综合新出口业务增速也降至四个月以来的最低水平。 就业人数连续两年半稳步增长,但由于未完成订单数量连续第五个月增加,产能压力依然存在。 受劳动力、原材料、燃料和能源价格上涨(通常与中东局势和日元疲软有关)的推动,平均投入成本以2023年1月以来的最大速度飙升。 商品生产商的成本通胀明显高于服务提供商,导致平均产出成本以2007年底综合数据开始统计以来最快的速度上涨。 由于中东战争带来的不确定性和市场动荡,企业对未来产出的信心连续第二个月减弱,降至2020年8月以来的最低水平。

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Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion On Shares Of Otis Worldwide Corporation

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We cut our 12-month target to $90 from $100 following Q1 earnings, valuing OTIS shares at 19.6x our 2027 EPS outlook of $4.58 (down from $4.70; 2026 EPS view updated to $4.18 from $4.25), a modest discount to industrial machinery peers' and OTIS's five-year forward multiple average given unclear timing of ongoing margin headwinds. Service margins were disappointing in Q1 (contracting 160 bps to 23%) amid higher labor and material costs that came in above pricing. Weakness in China has yet to stabilize, though as noted in the past, this represents a shrinking area of OTIS's portfolio and will have a more limited effect going forward. Overall, the latest quarter was more of the same (China weakness/New Equipment decline), though with the added concern of margin quality being pressured within Service - the core profit driver for OTIS overall. While efforts to shore up profitability are underway, we see timing of recovery being uncertain.

$OTIS
Asia Markets

Saudi Shares Start Week Higher; US-Iran Peace Talks Canceled

The Tadawul All Share Index closed Sunday 0.11% higher as investors assessed the latest updates regarding the conflict in the Middle East.US President Donald Trump said on his Truth Social account that the Pakistani trip for his envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, was canceled. The announcement dimmed the hopes for peace talks between Iran and the US to happen any time soon.Further to this, Israel launched an attack in Lebanon on April 25. The strikes, which targeted Hezbollah, resulted in four casualties and facility damage in Southern Lebanon.Back at home, Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical (SASE:2380), d/b/a Petro Rabigh, and Thob Al Aseel (SASE:4012) posted their financial results for the three months ended March 31. Petro Rabigh emerged from a loss in the first quarter, while Thob Al Aseel logged a higher net profit and revenue."The reason for net profit reported during the current quarter compared to a net loss recorded in the same quarter of last year was primarily attributable to improved product margins resulting from stronger refined product pricing and higher sales volumes," Petro Rabigh said in its report.Petro Rabigh rose 10% at closing, while Thob Al Aseel ticked down 1.59%.Meanwhile, the local calendar will be mostly empty except for the kingdom's preliminary figures for its GDP growth rate for the first quarter and the M3 money supply and private bank lending data for March on Thursday.

$^TASI$SASE:2380$SASE:4012
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Rating On Shares Of United Rentals Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lift our 12-month target price to $1,100 from $950 following a strong first quarter, valuing shares at 20.5x our 2027 EPS outlook of $54.28 (in line with previous estimate; 2026 EPS also in line). We believe a higher multiple is justified given URI's firming market leadership within an expanding rental equipment industry. A robust Q1 beat enabled URI to raise its full-year revenue guidance to $16.9B-$17.4B and adjusted EBITDA to $7.625B-$7.875B, citing momentum heading into a busy season. With leverage well below historical levels, we believe accretive M&A deals could serve as a potential catalyst for additional guidance increases. Margin compression has been a sticky issue for URI, but Q1 indicated that pricing may have turned around and that headwinds are starting to ease as quarterly results begin to lap when tariff-related inflation began to pick-up. We remain cautious on margins, though are encouraged by signs of stabilization. New project activity is likely supporting pricing trends, in our view.

$URI