-- 新西兰经济研究所(NZIER)周二表示,受美以伊战争推高燃油价格、霍尔木兹海峡局势不确定性加剧导致供应链中断的影响,新西兰企业信心在3月份季度有所下降。 NZIER季度商业意见调查(QSBO)显示,经季节性调整后,仅有1%的企业预计未来几个月整体经济状况将有所改善,较去年12月份季度的39%大幅下降。 企业自身的交易活动基本持平,较上一季度3%的降幅有所回升。相比之下,约9%的企业在本季度裁员,另有5%的企业计划在下一季度进一步裁员,这主要是由于企业普遍计划减少对厂房、设备和机械的投资。 该智库在一份声明中表示:“尽管企业在3月份季度的国内贸易活动保持稳定,但美以持续不断的伊朗战争对新西兰经济去年底初见端倪的脆弱复苏构成风险。” 各行业的情绪不一,其中建筑业企业最为悲观,28%的企业预计经济前景将恶化。制造业企业则最为乐观,34%的企业预计情况会有所改善。 新西兰经济研究所(NZIER)仍然认为,新西兰央行将在7月份首次加息25个基点,开启其紧缩周期。
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