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據Rystad公司稱,受供應鏈緊張影響,海灣能源公司維修費用可能高達580億美元。

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-- Rystad Energy的策略師週三在一份報告中指出,中東衝突造成的能源基礎設施損毀修復成本可能高達580億美元,其更廣泛的連鎖反應可能會延誤全球能源計畫。 光是石油和天然氣設施的修復總成本預計將達到500億美元,而能源、電力和工業資產的整體修復支出則在340億美元至580億美元之間,中間值估計為460億美元。 Rystad表示,在美伊於4月8日達成停火協議後,該地區部分地區持續遭受軍事打擊,導致近幾週破壞規模擴大。 Satwani表示,儘管重建資金到位,但目前的主要限制因素是設備、承包商和物流能力的獲取,而非融資。 「這不再只是海灣地區設施受損的故事,而是對全球能源供應鏈的一次壓力測試,」Rystad Energy供應鏈研究高級分析師Karan Satwani說。 “維修工作不會創造新的產能,而是重新分配現有產能。” Rystad 表示,由於承包商仍致力於自 2023 年以來獲批的一系列液化天然氣和海上項目,工程和建設資源的競爭已經加劇,這增加了全球能源投資延誤和通膨壓力的風險。 該顧問公司表示,恢復時間表因損壞程度和當地執行能力而異,一些受影響較小的設施可在幾週內重新啟動。然而,需要更換主要設備的嚴重受損資產可能需要數年才能恢復。 下游煉油廠和石化廠佔預計成本的最大份額,其次是上游和中游資產。 同時,從國家層級來看,伊朗受到的影響最大,潛在的維修成本高達 190 億美元,這主要是由於南帕爾斯天然氣處理設施、石化聯合企業以及煉油和出口基礎設施的損壞。 雷斯塔德顧問公司表示,卡達的受損情況更為集中,但技術上也更為複雜,主要集中在拉斯拉凡工業城,那裡的液化天然氣設施和天然氣製油資產受到影響,可能導致正在進行的擴建工程進度放緩。 該顧問公司指出,工程、採購和施工活動將佔支出的最大份額,並強調設備瓶頸和較長的交付週期將決定恢復速度。 據報道,國際能源總署執行長法提赫·比羅爾表示,自2月28日衝突爆發以來,中東已有超過80處能源設施遭到攻擊。

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