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摩根士丹利仍預計加拿大央行將在2027年第一季首次升息。

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-- 摩根士丹利表示,加拿大央行在3月的政策會議上維持了鴿派的利率政策。 1月的貨幣政策報告列出了美墨加協定(CUSMA)重新談判的一系列情景,並將其視為加拿大經濟未來面臨的主要風險。 2月的就業報告表現疲軟——加拿大經濟減少了8.4萬個就業崗位,失業率上升25個基點至6.71%。 摩根士丹利表示,仍預期加拿大央行今年將維持利率不變,並在2027年第一季升息。勞動市場和消費的顯著疲軟、石油危機的持續以及美墨加協定審查帶來的下行風險,都降低了即將舉行的政策會議上降息的預期。

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