-- 据德斯贾丁银行4月22日发布的一份报告显示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什在本周的确认听证会上为其宏观经济框架的核心论点进行了辩护。 沃什认为，人工智能将提升经济的生产潜力，使产出增长更快，而不会重新引发通胀。德斯贾丁银行指出，他的论点意味着，生产率驱动的经济扩张可能为宽松的货币政策创造空间。 沃什的理论与一位前美联储主席的观点不谋而合。上世纪90年代，艾伦·格林斯潘表现出支持而非抑制经济扩张的意愿，部分原因是当时的经济扩张是由生产率增长驱动的。然而，德斯贾丁银行指出，到了90年代末，格林斯潘却开始加息而非降息。 撇开美国是否真的正处于持久的生产力复兴这一悬而未决的问题不谈，该银行表示，沃什的结论似乎与支撑中性利率（也称r*）估算的标准储蓄和投资逻辑相悖。 据德斯贾丁银行称，在加拿大，加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆提出了与沃什的论点“几乎截然相反”的观点。 德斯贾丁银行指出，麦克勒姆在今年早些时候的一次演讲中认为，当经济增长疲软反映的是生产能力下降而非周期性需求不足时，降息既有可能“加剧未来的通胀”，也有可能“延缓必要的结构性变革”。 该银行补充说，沃什和麦克勒姆都犯了一个错误，那就是假设（或者至少暗示）潜在产出的变化可以直接转化为合适的政策利率。 德斯贾丁斯表示，对于r-star指标以及围绕该指标制定的实际政策而言，关键在于理想储蓄与投资之间的平衡。持续的生产率增长通常会通过提升资本需求，推动这种平衡向更高的中性利率靠拢。相反，贸易导致的增长前景恶化通常会通过削弱投资需求和增加储蓄供给，使这种平衡向相反的方向发展。 德斯贾丁斯补充道：“沃什和麦克勒姆的错误在于：将经济增长速度的变化解读为利率水平的指导。如果错误地执行这一政策，最终可能会产生与经济体实际需求完全相反的结果。”
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Crude Oil Prices Rise on Stalled U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Crude oil prices rose on Monday as talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran remain frozen and flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted.Brent crude at last look gained 2.7% to US$108.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.4% to $96.63/barrel. The U.S. and Iran appear to still be far apart on issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the strait, Reuters said in a Monday report."The diplomatic stand-off means that every day 10-13 million barrels of oil fail to get to the international market, worsening an already tight oil balance. Therefore, there is only one direction for oil prices to go," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90/barrel for Brent and $83/barrel for WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East, the report said.
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Commodities
Japan Resorts to More Coal, Nuclear During Energy Crisis Sidelines Renewables, Says IEEFA
Japan is leaning on higher nuclear output and ramping up use of coal in power generation as contingency measures in the face of the global energy crisis, but these measures are simultaneously smothering renewables, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Monday.Temporary increased use of coal was decided upon to reduce the need for now-scarce LNG while the restart of some nuclear power plants is also providing additional resilience to supply shocks which have hit Asian nations hardest.IEEFA said this risks displacing domestic renewable energy which can supply just as much energy security but lower cost and it could also increase curtailment and undermine investment in more renewables, up-ending progress on decarbonization.Most of Japan's coal imports, about 71%, come from Australia, making it a safe option that reduces exposure to disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, the IEEFA report noted.But a shortage of diesel for plant operations at J-Power's Matsuura 2 gigawatt coal-fired power station slashed its output by 50% while the JFE Steel Fukuyama facility was halted over a shortage of heavy oil, underscoring that coal is not fully detached from oil and gas's geopolitical risk.Japan typically imports 4 million tons of LNG that pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year, representing about 6% of its total imports.As of March, 15 of Japan's 36 nuclear reactors were operating, as that sector recovers from the multiple impacts of the Fukushima disaster.They generate a combined 37 GW. Bringing the remainder online could cut Japan's LNG needs by 12.5 million tonnes, IEEFA said. Regulatory changes in early April were introduced, facilitating more restarts.Backing up its argument that more coal and nuclear, both less flexible power sources, could increase curtailment of renewables, IEEFA said that each nuclear restart in Japan has been followed by a reduction in renewables generation.Curtailments in Japan have risen to 1.9 terrawatt hours by 2023, up from 100 GWh in 2018. In the first half of 2025, curtailments were faster still at 1.7 terrawatt hours for a six-month period.The fact that output from coal and nuclear can not rapidly be increased or slowed means it can be difficult to make room for renewable supply on the grid when its output rises.IEEFA said that limitations in Japan's grid infrastructure is an additional constraint that limits absorption of renewable power and led to a situation in March where it curtailed renewables while importing power from abroad.IEEFA suggests that the addition of battery storage to the grid could go some way to boosting its flexibility.Curtailment of renewables output has another inherent problem in that it leads to a less favourable economic case for later additions of zero carbon generation capacity, the report said, all the more so because Japan does not compensate renewables suppliers for curtailments, a practice common in Europe.Developers are adding battery storage as a work-around to that, securing contracts that remunerate battery-discharged electricity instead of directly generated then consumed electricity.The addition of batteries adds to project costs however at a time when investor interest has yet to turn into large scale deployment, with erosion of revenue support measures a further deterrent, IEEFA said.
Research
UOB Kay Hian Upgrades Hana Microelectronics to Buy from Hold; Price Target is THB38
Hana Microelectronics (BKK:HANA) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 25.44 Thai baht, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
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