-- 德斯賈丁銀行在周一公佈的CPI數據後表示,由於消費者在3月面臨13%的能源成本上漲,加拿大消費者物價指數(CPI)較上季上漲0.9%。 然而,該行指出,這一數字略低於預期,因為剔除食品和能源價格的CPI意外地保持穩定。此外,價格年漲幅超過3%的CPI類別佔比下降,而漲幅低於1%的類別佔比上升。 儘管加拿大央行首選的核心通膨指標較上月上漲0.2%,高於先前的0.1%,但這主要是由於能源價格上漲和波動較大的租金價格飆升所致。 儘管環比有所回升,但這些指標的三個月年化平均漲幅在3月份僅為1.7%,與該行追踪的剔除住房成本的三個月年化核心服務通脹率相近。 進一步佐證潛在價格壓力依然溫和的證據是,經偏差調整後的核心中位數和截尾均值通膨指標的年化平均增長率也顯得“疲軟”,為1.8%,而未經調整的平均值為2.3%。 該行指出,預計全球能源價格上漲對潛在通膨指標的影響有限。即使中東衝突持續,德斯賈丁銀行也認為這只是相對價格衝擊,對核心通膨指標的影響微乎其微。 因此,加拿大央行今年餘下時間可以繼續按兵不動,以刺激經濟復甦。受此數據影響,市場參與者進一步降低了對加拿大央行升息的預期,目前市場預期今年升息25個基點的可能性不足一次。
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