-- 德國股市週一在勞動節假期後回歸市場，但隨後下跌。投資者正在評估最新的德國工廠活動商業調查數據，同時關注中東局勢升級以及美國新的關稅威脅。 收盤時，藍籌股DAX指數下跌1.24%。 根據標普全球數據顯示，德國4月製造業採購經理人指數（PMI）終值從上月創下的46個月高點52.2小幅下滑至51.4，高於先前公佈的初值51.2。由於持續的中東衝突導致商業前景“黯淡”，新訂單和生產成長被抵消，製造業擴張速度放緩。 標普全球市場情報經濟副總監菲爾·史密斯表示：「由於對供需雙方狀況的擔憂日益加劇，預計來年業務活動將下滑的企業數量已超過預期增長的企業。人們擔心飆升的通脹壓力及其導致的購買力下降將抑制需求，4月份工廠出廠價格通脹率飆升至三年多來的最高水平。 談到中東衝突，伊朗海軍聲稱在霍爾木茲海峽擊退了一艘美國軍艦，據稱當時該軍艦正在賈斯克港附近航行，伊朗海軍用兩枚導彈擊中了它。路透社引述伊朗國家媒體報道稱，德黑蘭警告外國海軍，如果它們進入霍爾木茲海峽，伊朗將予以「果斷回應」。這份報告發布之際，美國總統川普週日表示，華盛頓計劃援助滯留在該水道的中立商船。 在關稅方面，川普於2026年5月1日宣布，他將從本週開始將歐盟製造的汽車關稅從15%提高到25%，並聲稱歐盟未能遵守2025年7月生效的貿易框架協議。美國總統告訴記者，此舉旨在迫使歐洲品牌更快地將生產轉移回美國本土。 在此背景下，德國汽車公司梅賽德斯-奔馳集團（MBG.F）、寶馬（BMW.F）、大眾汽車（VOW.F）和保時捷汽車控股公司（PAH3.F）的股價分別下跌了3.35%、2.44%、2.22%和0.94%，原因是因為Xetra股票交易引發了廣泛關注股票交易引發了廣泛關注股票交易。 同時，西門子能源（ENR.F）股價下跌 2.09%，原因是奧地利聯邦經濟、能源和旅遊部宣布，這家德國能源技術公司計劃在該國投資 1.55 億歐元用於兩個項目，其中包括一項變壓器生產計劃和一個新的服務工廠的開發。
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Sectors
Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Decline Monday Afternoon
Consumer stocks were lower Monday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.9% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) down 0.6%.In corporate news, GameStop (GME) has proposed to acquire eBay (EBAY) in a cash-and-stock deal worth about $55.5 billion. GameStop fell more than 7%, and eBay jumped 5.3%.Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) shares slumped more than 9%. The company lowered its full-year earnings outlook on Monday amid higher fuel costs and weak consumer demand due to the Middle East conflict, while its Q1 revenue fell short of market estimates.Tyson Foods' (TSN) fiscal Q2 results surpassed Wall Street's expectations, lifted by price and volume gains in the chicken and prepared foods segments. Its shares rose 2.5%.
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Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Ir
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We revise our 12-month target to $90 from $100, following IR's Q1 earnings release, valuing shares at 23x our 2027 EPS outlook of $3.93 (down from $3.97; 2026 EPS estimate unchanged), near IR's long-term historical forward average and peer multiples. While IR's adjusted EPS of $0.77 (+7% Y/Y) beat expectations, the underlying results revealed a challenging quarter for organic sales and order growth. Total revenue grew 8% on acquisitions and FX, but organic revenue dipped 0.3%, reflecting a sharp divergence between the company's two segments. The Precision & Science Tech segment performed strongly, with 4% organic growth and margin expansion, while the larger Industrial Tech segment faced a 2% sales decline and 210 bps of margin compression from volume and tariff headwinds. 2026 earnings guidance is back-half weighted, which we see carrying execution risk, as there is little margin for error. Looking ahead, Q3 will be a critical quarter for IR as a broader recovery is expected to gain traction.
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US Markets
Payment-Focused Companies' Results Could Largely Meet or Top Views With Cautious Consumer Outlook, RBC Says
Upcoming results of several key payment-focused and financial technology companies are likely to either meet or exceed expectations, though firms are seen having a cautious outlook on the consumer amid war-driven inflationary pressures, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Monday.PayPal (PYPL), Fiserv (FISV), Shift4 Payments (FOUR), Affirm (AFRM), Block (XYZ), Corpay (CPAY), Global Payments (GPN), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY), Rocket (RKT), Toast (TOST), and NCR Voyix (VYX) are among the companies scheduled to report their latest quarterly financial results this week."We believe that the payments group will deliver in-line to better-than-expected results, except for (Shift4), which we believe will be impacted by seasonally weaker and Middle East-impacted Global Blue; PayPal, and (NCR)," RBC analyst Daniel Perlin said in a note to clients. "While we expect higher tax returns to benefit spending trends this quarter, we expect management teams to have a cautious outlook on the consumer on the basis of higher fuel prices and a general inflationary environment impacting discretionary spending."High recurring revenue and a strong demand backdrop likely insulate Jack Henry and Fidelity National from broader economic volatility, according to the brokerage. "The macro is not in the driver seat for them, and we expect management teams to continue reinforcing their view that the cores have a data and compliance moat from (artificial intelligence) disruption," Perlin said.Recently, Visa's (V) latest quarterly results showed payments volume growth in the US, while Mastercard (MA) saw purchase volume growth in that market, according to RBC. This indicates that restaurant and retail has likely "held up," though cross-border and travel continue to be areas of caution, Perlin said.PayPal's branded checkout performance in the first quarter will likely be pressured due to exposure to the Middle East conflict and pullback from low-income consumers. However, the investors will be focused on the company's potential future strategic direction instead of just the quarterly results, according to the note.RBC expects Global Payments to face "modest" headwinds in the first half of 2026 due to its exposure to Middle Eastern airlines and the ongoing conflict in the region. Despite having minimal Middle East ties, inflation and small- and medium-business exposure could challenge Fiserv in the near term.Affirm is seeing robust consumer demand despite high fuel costs, RBC said. "Affirm's potential Middle East exposure is more of a knock-on effect associated with higher oil prices crowding out overall consumer spending, and with (Affirm's) tilt toward lower-end consumers, it's probable to assume some potential weakness in that cohort."Block's Cash App Borrow offering is likely to see strong demand amid consumer pressure, according to the brokerage. "As for (the first quarter), intra-quarter conversations suggest overall volume trends in both Cash App and Seller appear to be holding up, with additional levers benefiting (the second quarter)," Perlin said.Energy prices have surged as the US-Israel war with Iran curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The conflict paused following a recent ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, but a framework for a permanent truce is yet to be reached. The war started at the end of February.Price: $50.52, Change: $+0.08, Percent Change: +0.16%
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