-- 德國聯邦統計局週四公佈的初步數據顯示,2月份德國製造業產出意外環比下降,甚至在中東戰爭爆發之前就已經下滑,其中製藥和電子行業的產出疲軟是主要原因。 經季節性和日曆因素調整後,2月實際製造業產出季減0.3%,而1月的數據向上修正後則為停滯不前。此前市場普遍預期2月製造業產出將成長0.9%。 按月計算,製藥和計算機、電子及光學產品的產量分別下降了4.4%和3.9%。受冬季寒冷天氣的影響,建築業產出下滑了1.2%,而汽車產量則增加了1.7%。荷蘭國際集團(ING)全球宏觀經濟主管卡斯滕·布熱斯基表示,德國聯邦統計局的數據描繪了一幅「消費者非常猶豫、遲疑」的景象,而製造業則難以獲得積極的成長勢頭。 經日曆調整後,德國製造業產出與去年同期持平,與1月修正後的0.9%的降幅形成鮮明對比。剔除能源和建築業後,2月工業產出季減0.1%,年減0.6%。 在佔工業總產值17%的能源密集產業中,2月產出年增1.9%,較去年同期成長0.1%。消費品產出較上季下降1.5%,而中間產品和資本品產出分別成長0.4%和0.1%。作為歐洲最大的能源淨進口國之一,德國2月能源產量較上季成長0.3%。 「總而言之,2月份的宏觀數據顯示,即使沒有中東戰爭,德國經濟也不幸地再次陷入萎縮。更糟糕的是,無論昨天宣布的停火協議最終能否持續,中東戰爭都將在未來幾個月對德國經濟造成明顯的影響。儘管我們原本希望能夠就德國經濟的一些利好消息發表評論,但如今的情況就像在等一列火車:肯定會預料到德國火車也很難。
Related Articles
Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion On Shares Of Otis Worldwide Corporation
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We cut our 12-month target to $90 from $100 following Q1 earnings, valuing OTIS shares at 19.6x our 2027 EPS outlook of $4.58 (down from $4.70; 2026 EPS view updated to $4.18 from $4.25), a modest discount to industrial machinery peers' and OTIS's five-year forward multiple average given unclear timing of ongoing margin headwinds. Service margins were disappointing in Q1 (contracting 160 bps to 23%) amid higher labor and material costs that came in above pricing. Weakness in China has yet to stabilize, though as noted in the past, this represents a shrinking area of OTIS's portfolio and will have a more limited effect going forward. Overall, the latest quarter was more of the same (China weakness/New Equipment decline), though with the added concern of margin quality being pressured within Service - the core profit driver for OTIS overall. While efforts to shore up profitability are underway, we see timing of recovery being uncertain.
Saudi Shares Start Week Higher; US-Iran Peace Talks Canceled
The Tadawul All Share Index closed Sunday 0.11% higher as investors assessed the latest updates regarding the conflict in the Middle East.US President Donald Trump said on his Truth Social account that the Pakistani trip for his envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, was canceled. The announcement dimmed the hopes for peace talks between Iran and the US to happen any time soon.Further to this, Israel launched an attack in Lebanon on April 25. The strikes, which targeted Hezbollah, resulted in four casualties and facility damage in Southern Lebanon.Back at home, Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical (SASE:2380), d/b/a Petro Rabigh, and Thob Al Aseel (SASE:4012) posted their financial results for the three months ended March 31. Petro Rabigh emerged from a loss in the first quarter, while Thob Al Aseel logged a higher net profit and revenue."The reason for net profit reported during the current quarter compared to a net loss recorded in the same quarter of last year was primarily attributable to improved product margins resulting from stronger refined product pricing and higher sales volumes," Petro Rabigh said in its report.Petro Rabigh rose 10% at closing, while Thob Al Aseel ticked down 1.59%.Meanwhile, the local calendar will be mostly empty except for the kingdom's preliminary figures for its GDP growth rate for the first quarter and the M3 money supply and private bank lending data for March on Thursday.
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Rating On Shares Of United Rentals Inc.
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lift our 12-month target price to $1,100 from $950 following a strong first quarter, valuing shares at 20.5x our 2027 EPS outlook of $54.28 (in line with previous estimate; 2026 EPS also in line). We believe a higher multiple is justified given URI's firming market leadership within an expanding rental equipment industry. A robust Q1 beat enabled URI to raise its full-year revenue guidance to $16.9B-$17.4B and adjusted EBITDA to $7.625B-$7.875B, citing momentum heading into a busy season. With leverage well below historical levels, we believe accretive M&A deals could serve as a potential catalyst for additional guidance increases. Margin compression has been a sticky issue for URI, but Q1 indicated that pricing may have turned around and that headwinds are starting to ease as quarterly results begin to lap when tariff-related inflation began to pick-up. We remain cautious on margins, though are encouraged by signs of stabilization. New project activity is likely supporting pricing trends, in our view.