-- 德國商業銀行表示,投資人不太可能在周三美東時間上午9:45看到加拿大央行調整利率。 德國商業銀行指出,與除澳洲儲備銀行以外的許多其他G10央行一樣,政策制定者可能更傾向於等待觀察中東衝突的最終影響。 該行認為,最新的加拿大通膨數據支持了這一觀點:3月份的通膨數據低於預期,核心通膨率在經歷了數月的波動後終於穩定在略高於2%的水平。 此外,還有其他幾個原因:實體經濟復甦緩慢;由於能源獨立,加拿大應該能夠更好地抵禦價格衝擊;最重要的是,加拿大與美國的關係持續緊張,以及即將舉行的美墨加協定(CUSMA)談判。 因此,該行在一份致客戶的報告中寫道,目前沒有太多理由急於提高利率。即使伊朗戰爭最終導致升息成為必要,其他央行也可能率先採取行動。 德國商業銀行仍認為,市場對加拿大央行的預期遠比對歐洲央行或英國央行的預期更為現實。但加拿大升息的可能性要到今年最後一個季度才會出現。 目前,貨幣政策不太可能對加幣(CAD 或 loonie)的走勢起到決定性作用,油價上漲可能成為關注的焦點。
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