-- 德国股市周一在劳动节假期后回归市场，但随后下跌。投资者正在评估最新的德国工厂活动商业调查数据，同时关注中东局势不断升级以及美国新的关税威胁。 收盘时，蓝筹股DAX指数下跌1.24%。 据标普全球数据显示，德国4月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）终值从上月创下的46个月高点52.2小幅下滑至51.4，高于此前公布的初值51.2。由于持续的中东冲突导致商业前景“黯淡”，新订单和生产增长被抵消，制造业扩张速度放缓。 标普全球市场情报经济副总监菲尔·史密斯表示：“由于对供需双方状况的担忧日益加剧，预计来年业务活动将下滑的企业数量已超过预期增长的企业。人们担心飙升的通胀压力及其导致的购买力下降将抑制需求，4月份工厂出厂价格通胀率飙升至三年多来的最高水平。与此同时，由于供应延迟已达到2022年年中以来的最高水平，无论需求状况如何，都存在生产缩减的风险。” 谈到中东冲突，伊朗海军声称在霍尔木兹海峡击退了一艘美国军舰，据称当时该军舰正在贾斯克港附近航行，伊朗海军用两枚导弹击中了它。路透社援引伊朗国家媒体报道称，德黑兰警告外国海军，如果它们进入霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗将予以“果断回应”。这份报告发布之际，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周日表示，华盛顿计划援助滞留在该水道的中立商船。 在关税方面，特朗普于2026年5月1日宣布，他将从本周开始把欧盟制造的汽车关税从15%提高到25%，并声称欧盟未能遵守2025年7月生效的贸易框架协议。美国总统告诉记者，此举旨在迫使欧洲品牌更快地将生产转移回美国本土。 在此背景下，德国汽车公司梅赛德斯-奔驰集团（MBG.F）、宝马（BMW.F）、大众汽车（VOW.F）和保时捷汽车控股公司（PAH3.F）的股价分别下跌了3.35%、2.44%、2.22%和0.94%，原因是Xetra股票交易引发了广泛关注。 与此同时，西门子能源（ENR.F）股价下跌 2.09%，原因是奥地利联邦经济、能源和旅游部宣布，这家德国能源技术公司计划在该国投资 1.55 亿欧元用于两个项目，其中包括一项变压器生产计划和一个新的服务工厂的开发。
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Sectors
Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Decline Monday Afternoon
Consumer stocks were lower Monday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) decreasing 0.9% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) down 0.6%.In corporate news, GameStop (GME) has proposed to acquire eBay (EBAY) in a cash-and-stock deal worth about $55.5 billion. GameStop fell more than 7%, and eBay jumped 5.3%.Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) shares slumped more than 9%. The company lowered its full-year earnings outlook on Monday amid higher fuel costs and weak consumer demand due to the Middle East conflict, while its Q1 revenue fell short of market estimates.Tyson Foods' (TSN) fiscal Q2 results surpassed Wall Street's expectations, lifted by price and volume gains in the chicken and prepared foods segments. Its shares rose 2.5%.
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Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Ir
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We revise our 12-month target to $90 from $100, following IR's Q1 earnings release, valuing shares at 23x our 2027 EPS outlook of $3.93 (down from $3.97; 2026 EPS estimate unchanged), near IR's long-term historical forward average and peer multiples. While IR's adjusted EPS of $0.77 (+7% Y/Y) beat expectations, the underlying results revealed a challenging quarter for organic sales and order growth. Total revenue grew 8% on acquisitions and FX, but organic revenue dipped 0.3%, reflecting a sharp divergence between the company's two segments. The Precision & Science Tech segment performed strongly, with 4% organic growth and margin expansion, while the larger Industrial Tech segment faced a 2% sales decline and 210 bps of margin compression from volume and tariff headwinds. 2026 earnings guidance is back-half weighted, which we see carrying execution risk, as there is little margin for error. Looking ahead, Q3 will be a critical quarter for IR as a broader recovery is expected to gain traction.
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US Markets
Payment-Focused Companies' Results Could Largely Meet or Top Views With Cautious Consumer Outlook, RBC Says
Upcoming results of several key payment-focused and financial technology companies are likely to either meet or exceed expectations, though firms are seen having a cautious outlook on the consumer amid war-driven inflationary pressures, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Monday.PayPal (PYPL), Fiserv (FISV), Shift4 Payments (FOUR), Affirm (AFRM), Block (XYZ), Corpay (CPAY), Global Payments (GPN), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY), Rocket (RKT), Toast (TOST), and NCR Voyix (VYX) are among the companies scheduled to report their latest quarterly financial results this week."We believe that the payments group will deliver in-line to better-than-expected results, except for (Shift4), which we believe will be impacted by seasonally weaker and Middle East-impacted Global Blue; PayPal, and (NCR)," RBC analyst Daniel Perlin said in a note to clients. "While we expect higher tax returns to benefit spending trends this quarter, we expect management teams to have a cautious outlook on the consumer on the basis of higher fuel prices and a general inflationary environment impacting discretionary spending."High recurring revenue and a strong demand backdrop likely insulate Jack Henry and Fidelity National from broader economic volatility, according to the brokerage. "The macro is not in the driver seat for them, and we expect management teams to continue reinforcing their view that the cores have a data and compliance moat from (artificial intelligence) disruption," Perlin said.Recently, Visa's (V) latest quarterly results showed payments volume growth in the US, while Mastercard (MA) saw purchase volume growth in that market, according to RBC. This indicates that restaurant and retail has likely "held up," though cross-border and travel continue to be areas of caution, Perlin said.PayPal's branded checkout performance in the first quarter will likely be pressured due to exposure to the Middle East conflict and pullback from low-income consumers. However, the investors will be focused on the company's potential future strategic direction instead of just the quarterly results, according to the note.RBC expects Global Payments to face "modest" headwinds in the first half of 2026 due to its exposure to Middle Eastern airlines and the ongoing conflict in the region. Despite having minimal Middle East ties, inflation and small- and medium-business exposure could challenge Fiserv in the near term.Affirm is seeing robust consumer demand despite high fuel costs, RBC said. "Affirm's potential Middle East exposure is more of a knock-on effect associated with higher oil prices crowding out overall consumer spending, and with (Affirm's) tilt toward lower-end consumers, it's probable to assume some potential weakness in that cohort."Block's Cash App Borrow offering is likely to see strong demand amid consumer pressure, according to the brokerage. "As for (the first quarter), intra-quarter conversations suggest overall volume trends in both Cash App and Seller appear to be holding up, with additional levers benefiting (the second quarter)," Perlin said.Energy prices have surged as the US-Israel war with Iran curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The conflict paused following a recent ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, but a framework for a permanent truce is yet to be reached. The war started at the end of February.Price: $50.52, Change: $+0.08, Percent Change: +0.16%
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