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彭博社分析稱,受霍爾木茲海峽危機影響,沙烏地阿拉伯營收成長10%,阿聯酋石油收入下降25%。

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-- 根據彭博社週五的分析顯示,隨著布蘭特原油價格突破每桶126美元,沙烏地阿拉伯正從油價上漲中獲利頗豐,而海灣其他國家則因霍爾木茲海峽的中斷,每天損失高達7億美元的收入。 分析指出,沙烏地阿拉伯正將大部分原油運輸轉向紅海,儘管運輸量下降,但仍能確保更高的收入;而阿聯酋則因轉運能力有限而承受收入下滑。 分析也引述高盛分析師法魯克·蘇薩(Farouk Soussa)的觀點稱,高盛估計沙烏地阿拉伯的每周石油收入已比戰前水平增長了10%,而阿聯酋的收入則下降了約25%。 分析指出,隨著阿聯酋退出歐佩克並準備在霍爾木茲海峽重新開放後提高產量,收入差距正在加劇該地區兩大經濟體之間的競爭。 分析顯示,自2月下旬以來,沙烏地阿拉伯已將約400萬桶/日的原油透過其東西輸油管改道至延布,從而在這一戰略咽喉要道受阻的情況下維持了原油出口。 分析指出,阿聯酋3月的管線輸油量增加至約200萬桶/日,但這一數字僅為2月出口量的一半,限制了其彌補損失的能力。 分析引用高盛的數據補充道,由於阿曼的港口位於霍爾木茲海峽以外,因此避免了出口削減,並且自衝突爆發以來,其石油收入增長了約80%。而科威特、卡達、巴林和伊拉克則面臨收入大幅下降。 分析稱,股市也反映了這種分化,沙烏地阿拉伯和阿曼的股票表現優於海灣合作委員會的其他成員國。 分析顯示,高盛估計,海灣合作委員會六個成員國因原油運輸中斷每天損失約7億美元,預計兩個月後累積損失將達800億美元。 分析指出,自伊朗戰爭導致霍爾木茲海峽原油運輸中斷以來,原油價格飆升,布蘭特原油週四交易價格超過每桶126美元,創下2022年以來的最高水準。 分析也引述高盛的數據稱,海灣國家的空襲破壞了基礎設施,削弱了旅遊業,抹去了阿聯酋戰前佔國內生產總值6%的財政盈餘,而沙烏地阿拉伯的財政赤字僅改善了1個百分點。 蘇薩表示,阿曼的財政赤字已從7%轉為8%的盈餘,而巴林的財政赤字為17%,卡達為20%,科威特為40%。 分析稱,摩根大通估計,海灣合作委員會的財政狀況在衝突期間惡化了約3.6%的國內生產毛額。 據花旗分析師稱,受油價上漲和季節性成本下降的支撐,沙特阿美預計第一季淨利潤約為320億美元,創下自2023年第三季以來的最高水準。 彭博社數據顯示,卡達和科威特透過發行私募債券籌集了數十億美元資金,而巴林則從阿聯酋獲得了54億美元的貨幣互換。 高盛估計,海灣合作委員會(GCC)各國政府的每週借款需求已從17億美元翻了一番,達到35億美元。分析也指出,這迫使各國政府在持續動盪的局勢下尋求融資管道多元化。

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