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彭博社分析稱,受雙重封鎖壓力影響,霍爾木茲海峽船隻通行量持續低迷。

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-- 根據彭博社週三的分析顯示,由於美伊兩國持續有效的封鎖阻礙了霍爾木茲海峽這一戰略水道的船舶通行,該海峽的航運量遠低於歷史平均水平。 週二,通過霍爾木茲海峽的商船數量僅為11艘,低於週末平均每天16艘的水平。 《華爾街日報》引述兩位美國官員的話報導,週二實際通過該海峽的船舶超過20艘,幾乎是公開追蹤數據顯示的兩倍。 全球經濟迫切需要迅速恢復霍爾木茲海峽的航運,此前該海峽的石油運輸量已減少超過4億桶。 自中東衝突爆發以來,此次航運中斷已導致油價飆漲31%,歐洲天然氣價格也出現了類似的漲幅。 儘管通過該戰略水道的航運量大幅下降,但伊朗的石油出口仍保持在接近戰前水準的穩定狀態,這不僅為德黑蘭提供了重要的經濟生命線,也有助於穩定全球石油市場。 儘管該地區整體航運量在持續衝突的壓力下大幅下降,但伊朗維持出口的能力迄今為止緩解了西方主導的孤立其經濟行動的影響。 美國中央司令部週三表示,沒有船隻突破封鎖,並指出有九艘船遵照軍方命令返回伊朗水域。 有些船隻在駛離霍爾木茲海峽後才重新啟動應答器,導致過境資料有延遲。然而,分析顯示,即使有這些延遲報告,每日航運量也低於一年前135艘的平均值。 2月28日,伊朗在遭到美以聯合襲擊後不到24小時就關閉了霍爾木茲海峽,禁止國際航運通行。 美國最初為了穩定飆升的全球油價,並未封鎖伊朗的石油運輸,甚至放寬了對德黑蘭出口的製裁。然而,在周日巴基斯坦伊斯蘭堡停火談判破裂後,美國改變了策略。 新的封鎖措施於當地時間週一晚間生效,幾乎涵蓋了伊朗所有的海上活動。 美國和伊朗都表示可以突破對方的封鎖。據報道,德黑蘭方面稱其一艘超級油輪突破了美國的封鎖,但並未透露船名。 希臘籍的「阿吉奧斯法努里奧斯一號」(Agios Fanourios I)油輪也成功穿越霍爾木茲海峽,並在第二次嘗試後進入阿拉伯灣。自動化資訊系統(AIS)的追蹤數據顯示,該船的目的地是伊拉克巴士拉港。

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