-- 彭博社周四发布的一份分析报告称,受全球供应中断推动需求增长的影响,美国原油出口量预计将在5月份达到每日500万桶。 分析报告显示,4月份美国墨西哥湾沿岸的原油出口量已接近每日490万桶,高于3月份的约397万桶。 报告指出,这一增长反映了海外需求的强劲,尤其是来自寻求替代中东原油供应紧张的买家的需求。 分析师预计,在越来越多的超大型原油运输船(VLCC)在该地区装载原油以满足强劲的出口需求的推动下,5月份的出口量将进一步上升。 Kpler大宗商品研究主管马特·史密斯表示,分析报告显示,在亚洲持续强劲的购买需求的支撑下,5月份的出口量可能超过每日500万桶,超过此前450万桶的峰值。 分析报告指出,在全球市场面临严重供应紧张之际,美国原油出口在稳定地缘政治动荡下的原油供应方面发挥着关键作用。 随着夏季需求临近,出口增长可能迫使美国炼油商支付更高的价格以维持供应,而汽油价格超过每加仑4美元可能会在中期选举前加剧政治压力。 据美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据,出口量曾短暂接近500万桶/日,但未能维持一个月以上,分析显示,5月份可能是出口量首次持续接近该阈值。 分析还指出,5月份约有28艘超级油轮已预订装载原油,远高于通常每月同期5艘的水平。 一些预测表明,如果目前的船舶调度趋势保持不变,在亚洲持续购买需求的支撑下,出口量可能攀升至530万桶/日。 分析援引彭博社的一份报告称,最近一次运输中,超大型油轮“亚洲进步六号”(Asian Progress VI)已确定从西方石油公司(Occidental Petroleum)向东亚运送原油,费用约为1900万美元。 分析指出,尽管需求强劲,但美国出口体系已接近产能极限,物流方面的挑战开始制约其进一步增长。 分析还指出,如果没有额外的运力,有限的船舶可用性、小型支线船舶的短缺以及不断上涨的运费可能会使出口量限制在550万桶/日左右。
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