-- 据彭博社周五的分析显示,随着布伦特原油价格突破每桶126美元,沙特阿拉伯正从油价上涨中获利颇丰,而海湾其他国家则因霍尔木兹海峡的中断,每天损失高达7亿美元的收入。 分析指出,沙特阿拉伯正将大部分原油运输转向红海,尽管运输量有所下降,但仍能确保更高的收入;而阿联酋则因转运能力有限而承受着收入下滑。 分析还援引高盛分析师法鲁克·苏萨(Farouk Soussa)的观点称,高盛估计沙特阿拉伯的每周石油收入已比战前水平增长了10%,而阿联酋的收入则下降了约25%。 分析指出,随着阿联酋退出欧佩克并准备在霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后提高产量,收入差距正在加剧该地区两大经济体之间的竞争。 分析显示,自2月下旬以来,沙特阿拉伯已将约400万桶/日的原油通过其东西输油管道改道至延布,从而在这一战略咽喉要道受阻的情况下维持了原油出口。 分析指出,阿联酋3月份的管道输油量增至约200万桶/日,但这一数字仅为2月份出口量的一半,限制了其弥补损失的能力。 分析援引高盛的数据补充道,由于阿曼的港口位于霍尔木兹海峡以外,因此避免了出口削减,并且自冲突爆发以来,其石油收入增长了约80%。而科威特、卡塔尔、巴林和伊拉克则面临收入大幅下降。 分析称,股市也反映了这种分化,沙特阿拉伯和阿曼的股票表现优于海湾合作委员会的其他成员国。 分析显示,高盛估计,海湾合作委员会六个成员国因原油运输中断每天损失约7亿美元,预计两个月后累计损失将达到800亿美元。 分析指出,自伊朗战争导致霍尔木兹海峡原油运输中断以来,原油价格飙升,布伦特原油周四交易价格超过每桶126美元,创下2022年以来的最高水平。 分析还援引高盛的数据称,海湾国家的空袭破坏了基础设施,削弱了旅游业,抹去了阿联酋战前占国内生产总值6%的财政盈余,而沙特阿拉伯的财政赤字仅改善了1个百分点。 苏萨表示,阿曼的财政赤字已从7%转为8%的盈余,而巴林的财政赤字为17%,卡塔尔为20%,科威特为40%。 分析称,摩根大通估计,海湾合作委员会的财政状况在冲突期间恶化了约3.6%的国内生产总值。 据花旗分析师称,受油价上涨和季节性成本下降的支撑,沙特阿美预计第一季度净利润约为320亿美元,创下自2023年第三季度以来的最高水平。 彭博社数据显示,卡塔尔和科威特通过发行私募债券筹集了数十亿美元资金,而巴林则从阿联酋获得了54亿美元的货币互换。 高盛估计,海湾合作委员会(GCC)各国政府的每周借款需求已从17亿美元翻了一番,达到35亿美元。分析还指出,这迫使各国政府在持续动荡的局势下寻求融资渠道多元化。
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