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彭博社分析称,受双重封锁压力影响,霍尔木兹海峡船只通行量持续低迷。

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-- 据彭博社周三的分析显示,由于美伊两国持续有效的封锁阻碍了霍尔木兹海峡这一战略水道的船舶通行,该海峡的航运量远低于历史平均水平。 周二,通过霍尔木兹海峡的商船数量仅为11艘,低于周末平均每天16艘的水平。《华尔街日报》援引两位美国官员的话报道称,周二实际通过该海峡的船舶超过20艘,几乎是公开追踪数据显示的两倍。 全球经济迫切需要迅速恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运,此前该海峡的石油运输量已减少超过4亿桶。 自中东冲突爆发以来,此次航运中断已导致油价飙升31%,欧洲天然气价格也出现了类似的涨幅。 尽管通过这条战略水道的航运量大幅下降,但伊朗的石油出口仍保持在接近战前水平的稳定状态,这不仅为德黑兰提供了重要的经济生命线,也有助于稳定全球石油市场。 尽管该地区整体航运量在持续冲突的压力下大幅下降,但伊朗维持出口的能力迄今为止缓解了西方主导的孤立其经济行动的影响。 美国中央司令部周三表示,没有船只突破其封锁,并指出有九艘船只遵照军方命令返回伊朗水域。 一些船只只有在驶离霍尔木兹海峡后才重新激活应答器,导致过境数据存在滞后。然而,分析显示,即使存在这些延迟报告,每日航运量仍低于一年前135艘的平均水平。 2月28日,伊朗在遭到美以联合袭击后不到24小时便关闭了霍尔木兹海峡,禁止国际航运通行。 美国最初为了稳定飙升的全球油价,并未封锁伊朗的石油运输,甚至放松了对德黑兰出口的制裁。然而,在周日巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡停火谈判破裂后,美国改变了策略。 新的封锁措施于当地时间周一晚间生效,几乎涵盖了伊朗所有的海上活动。 美国和伊朗都表示可以突破对方的封锁。据报道,德黑兰方面称其一艘超级油轮突破了美国的封锁,但并未透露船名。 希腊籍的“阿吉奥斯·法努里奥斯一号”(Agios Fanourios I)油轮也成功穿越霍尔木兹海峡,并在第二次尝试后进入阿拉伯湾。自动化信息系统(AIS)的跟踪数据显示,该船的目的地是伊拉克巴士拉港。

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