-- 根據《日經亞洲評論》週三報道，東協領導人將在本週於菲律賓舉行的峰會上，共同應對伊朗衝突不斷擴大的經濟衝擊，其中通貨膨脹和供應中斷將成為討論的焦點。 會談也將涵蓋緬甸危機以及推動南海行為準則的努力。與美伊戰爭相關的襲擊事件導致霍爾木茲海峽航運受阻，擾亂了全球石油和天然氣供應，並導致價格飆升。據報道，菲律賓、泰國和越南等能源進口經濟體正面臨成本上升和供應鏈緊張的局面，迫使它們提供補貼、縮短工時並採取緊急措施。 分析家表示，東協呼籲緩和局勢的措施收效甚微，各國領導人仍面臨回應的壓力。 《日經亞洲評論》指出，在緬甸政策問題上，各方仍然存在分歧，而由於優先事項的衝突和地緣政治緊張局勢，與中國就南海行為準則進行的長期談判不太可能很快達成一致。 第48屆東協峰會及相關會議將於2026年5月6日至8日在菲律賓宿霧舉行。 （市場動態新聞來自與全球市場專業人士的對話。這些資訊據信來自可靠來源，但可能包含傳聞和推測。準確性無法保證。）
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US Markets
South Korea's Inflation Rate Jumps to Two-Year High in April
South Korea's inflation in April climbed to its highest in two years as the Middle East war triggered oil price hikes.The consumer price index or CPI rose 2.6% from a year earlier, the steepest since July 2024, according to Wednesday data from the Ministry of Data and Statistics.The current CPI was in line with the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Reuters.Excluding food and energy, the CPI grew 2.2% year on year.Data from the Bank of Korea showed that the price for oil and petroleum jumped 21.9% in April from 9.9% a month earlier as the war in Iran triggered global oil price shocks over concerns the global crude supply will dwindle due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.On the contrary, the prices agricultural, livestock and fishery products slipped 0.5% in April due to increased supply of major agricultural products, the central bank said.Hana Securities economist Chun Kyu-yeon said the government's fuel price caps helped ease inflation pressure. However, service price inflation is expected to increased due to the rise in other transportation fares, such as airfare, Reuters reported Wednesday.The ministry's data showed that the CPI for transportation grew 9.7% year on year.Meanwhile, Daishin Securities economist Kong Dong-rak expects the Bank of Korea to be leaning to a rate hike to mitigate inflationary pressures, according to the Reuters report.On the other hand, Min Joo Kang, ING's senior economist for South Korea and Japan, said a rate hike in July is more probable than one in May at the moment, while a 50-basis-point hike is expected in the second half of the year."With core inflation remaining near 2% and the government working to limit price hikes, the Bank of Korea is likely to pause in May," Kang said. "Strong exports, driven by semiconductors, will support overall growth, but the domestic economy will likely be hit harder by energy price hikes. This K-shaped recovery and widening growth gap between the IT and non-IT sectors should be a key challenge for the BoK."
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Research
Research Alert: Novo Nordisk Raises 2026 Outlook On Strong Wegovy Pill Sales
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Reported Q1 sales and operating profit surged 24% and 54%, respectively, boosted by a $4.2B reversal of 340B Drug Pricing Program rebate provision. On an adjusted basis (excluding this item), sales declined 10% (or -4% CER) due to lower realized prices, particularly in the U.S., partially offset by volume growth. The Wegovy pill, launched in January, delivered DKK2.3B in Q1 sales with weekly prescriptions exceeding 200k by mid-April and 2M+ total prescriptions, while injectable Wegovy grew 12% CER internationally, though U.S. sales fell 11% CER on pricing pressure. Management raised its 2026 outlook, with adjusted sales and operating profit now expected to decline 4%-12% CER (vs. prior -5% to -13%), reflecting stronger GLP-1 expectations, particularly for the Wegovy pill. Wegovy pill's strong launch trajectory is encouraging, with international rollout expected in 2H 2026. However, persistent U.S. pricing pressure, mixed clinical data (CagriSema setbacks), and intensifying competition warrant close monitoring.
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Oil & Energy
EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slip Amid Strong Renewables Output, Mild Weather
European natural gas futures opened lower on Wednesday with no major advances in the US-Iran conflict, while relatively strong renewables output displacing gas-fired generation and mild weather averting consumption from air conditioning were among influences.Dutch TTF futures were down 2.2% to 45.88 euros ($53.83) per megawatt hour while UK NBP futures fell 2.9% to 111.7 British pence ($1.52).ANZ Senior Commodities Analyst Daniel Hynes said in a daily update that cooler European temperatures and strong renewables output were one reason why its benchmark futures prices were not currently climbing.US President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday that he was pausing Project Freedom or the escort of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, at the request of mediator Pakistan and "other countries" while the US would continue to block access in and out of Iranian ports.Trump said that Project Freedom "will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed," in reference to a deal he is seeking with Iran, with the abandonment of its nuclear enrichment ambitions chief among his demands.Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Trump said that while higher, he said energy prices had not risen that dramatically and he said the higher prices were "a very small price to pay," to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.He said Iran's economy meanwhile was on the verge of collapse with galloping inflation, army salaries unpaid and a worthless currency. Trump also reiterated that Iranian negotiatorscontinued to engage keenly with the US behind the scenes while telling the public no such engagement was taking place.Analysts have grown somewhat immune to such messages with no significant progress on the single most pressing issue - the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world's oil and LNG-gas supplies flowed prior to the conflict.