-- 標普全球能源週五引述交易員的話稱，中東衝突將在第二季度支撐冶金煤市場價格，因為衝突擾亂了煤炭供應鏈並推高了物流成本。 本月以來，由於市場對柴油短缺加劇的擔憂日益加劇，冶金煤價格持續走高，這將特別衝擊澳洲的礦業營運。 標普能源表示，價格上漲的主要原因是運費上漲。普氏能源數據顯示，3月從澳洲東岸到印度東岸的巴拿馬型散裝貨船平均運費為每噸25.18美元，較2月的每噸16.76美元上漲了50.2%。 普氏能源數據顯示，3月從澳洲東岸到中國青澳的運費為每噸22.38美元，較2月的平均每噸15.29美元上漲了46.4%。 交易員們對停火消息反應冷淡，認為中期內緩解供應衝擊和推高價格的前景渺茫。 繼第一季潮濕天氣之後，這進一步加劇了澳洲礦業的壓力。 在中東衝突爆發之前，普氏能源資訊（Platts）優質低揮發性硬焦煤價格在第一季上漲，於2月4日達到澳洲離岸價（FOB Australia）252.50美元/噸。 截至3月31日，優質低揮發性硬焦煤評估價格為澳洲離岸價（FOB Australia）236.80美元/噸，高於季度初的18.80美元/噸；同期，普氏能源資訊優質低揮發性硬焦煤到岸價（CFR China）從14.50美元/噸上漲至220美元/噸。 標普全球能源表示，由於煤炭可以取代部分終端用戶的液化天然氣和石油，預計冶金煤價格短期內將維持在高點。 研究報告指出，印度現貨需求在經歷了第一季及2025年全年的強勁採購後可能會回落。 據悉，幾家先前依賴現貨市場採購優質煤炭的印度鋼鐵廠已於4月初與澳洲供應商簽署了長期協議。 （市場動態資訊來自與全球市場專業人士的交流。我們認為這些資訊來自可靠管道，但其中可能包含傳聞和推測。我們無法保證其準確性。）
Related Articles
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion On Shares Of Otis Worldwide Corporation
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We cut our 12-month target to $90 from $100 following Q1 earnings, valuing OTIS shares at 19.6x our 2027 EPS outlook of $4.58 (down from $4.70; 2026 EPS view updated to $4.18 from $4.25), a modest discount to industrial machinery peers' and OTIS's five-year forward multiple average given unclear timing of ongoing margin headwinds. Service margins were disappointing in Q1 (contracting 160 bps to 23%) amid higher labor and material costs that came in above pricing. Weakness in China has yet to stabilize, though as noted in the past, this represents a shrinking area of OTIS's portfolio and will have a more limited effect going forward. Overall, the latest quarter was more of the same (China weakness/New Equipment decline), though with the added concern of margin quality being pressured within Service - the core profit driver for OTIS overall. While efforts to shore up profitability are underway, we see timing of recovery being uncertain.
$OTIS
Asia Markets
Saudi Shares Start Week Higher; US-Iran Peace Talks Canceled
The Tadawul All Share Index closed Sunday 0.11% higher as investors assessed the latest updates regarding the conflict in the Middle East.US President Donald Trump said on his Truth Social account that the Pakistani trip for his envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, was canceled. The announcement dimmed the hopes for peace talks between Iran and the US to happen any time soon.Further to this, Israel launched an attack in Lebanon on April 25. The strikes, which targeted Hezbollah, resulted in four casualties and facility damage in Southern Lebanon.Back at home, Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical (SASE:2380), d/b/a Petro Rabigh, and Thob Al Aseel (SASE:4012) posted their financial results for the three months ended March 31. Petro Rabigh emerged from a loss in the first quarter, while Thob Al Aseel logged a higher net profit and revenue."The reason for net profit reported during the current quarter compared to a net loss recorded in the same quarter of last year was primarily attributable to improved product margins resulting from stronger refined product pricing and higher sales volumes," Petro Rabigh said in its report.Petro Rabigh rose 10% at closing, while Thob Al Aseel ticked down 1.59%.Meanwhile, the local calendar will be mostly empty except for the kingdom's preliminary figures for its GDP growth rate for the first quarter and the M3 money supply and private bank lending data for March on Thursday.
$^TASI$SASE:2380$SASE:4012
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Rating On Shares Of United Rentals Inc.
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lift our 12-month target price to $1,100 from $950 following a strong first quarter, valuing shares at 20.5x our 2027 EPS outlook of $54.28 (in line with previous estimate; 2026 EPS also in line). We believe a higher multiple is justified given URI's firming market leadership within an expanding rental equipment industry. A robust Q1 beat enabled URI to raise its full-year revenue guidance to $16.9B-$17.4B and adjusted EBITDA to $7.625B-$7.875B, citing momentum heading into a busy season. With leverage well below historical levels, we believe accretive M&A deals could serve as a potential catalyst for additional guidance increases. Margin compression has been a sticky issue for URI, but Q1 indicated that pricing may have turned around and that headwinds are starting to ease as quarterly results begin to lap when tariff-related inflation began to pick-up. We remain cautious on margins, though are encouraged by signs of stabilization. New project activity is likely supporting pricing trends, in our view.
$URI