-- 根據彭博社週五報道，美國一些最大的石油公司警告稱，由於霍爾木茲海峽已關閉兩個多月，原油市場可能即將迎來持續高價期。 埃克森美孚（XOM）、雪佛龍（CVX）和康菲石油（COP）表示，2月28日（伊朗戰爭爆發日）之前儲存在船上的全球原油庫存、戰略儲備和油氣儲量正在被逐步消耗。 雪佛龍財務長艾米爾·邦納（Eimear Bonner）週五在接受彭博電視台採訪時表示，這些儲備在過去兩個月裡起到了一定的緩衝作用，抵禦了油價上漲，但現在儲備正在迅速減少。 邦納說：“很多庫存和剩餘產能已經被消耗殆盡。緩衝空間所剩無幾。” 彭博社指出，儘管全球約五分之一的石油和天然氣運輸的關鍵通道已關閉兩個多月，但油價仍遠高於每桶100美元，遠未達到歷史最高水準。 根據彭博社報道，埃克森美孚執行長達倫伍茲週五在與分析師的電話會議上表示，一旦現有儲備耗盡，油價很可能會迅速反映出供需失衡加劇的局面。 他表示：“顯而易見，如果你看看前所未有的供應中斷以及全球石油和天然氣的供應情況，市場尚未完全感受到其影響。如果海峽繼續關閉，未來還會有更多影響。” 康菲石油公司首席財務官安迪·奧布萊恩將全球能源危機爆發以來油價的上漲描述為一段“緩衝期”，因為穿越霍爾木茲海峽的船隻需要多花幾週時間才能完成貨物運輸，從而緩衝了供應受到的衝擊。 奧布萊恩週四在與分析師的電話會議上表示，自2月下旬以來，原油市場一直處於“緩衝期”，因為戰前裝載的船隻需要數週時間才能完成航程，因此仍在運送貨物。 「現在，所有這些貨物都已抵達目的地，」他說。 「供應中斷的影響將開始變得更加明顯，」他預測，到6月或7月，依賴進口的國家將出現「嚴重短缺」。 彭博社的文章引用了摩根大通分析師娜塔莎·卡內娃的一份報告，該報告稱，如果海峽持續關閉並迫使消費下降，已開發國家的油價將在9月份跌至歷史最低點。已聯繫三家石油公司以核實相關評論。 （市場閒聊新聞來自與全球市場專業人士的對話。這些資訊被認為是來自可靠來源，但可能包含傳言和猜測。準確性無法保證。）
Related Articles
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Buy Recommendation On Shares Of Cullen/frost Bankers, Inc.
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our target price by $5 to $185, 16.6x our 2027 EPS estimate, a premium to CFR's five-year forward P/E average of 14.5x given its superior balance sheet growth. We increase our 2026 EPS view by $0.70 to $10.54 and raise 2027's by $0.57 to $11.17. CFR has grown rapidly, but this growth has been accompanied by expense increases that outpaced revenue growth, resulting in negative operating leverage. This trend is now reversing. CFR raised its net interest margin and loan guidance this quarter while keeping expense guidance unchanged, which means CFR is now on pace for positive operating leverage and record EPS in 2026, a year earlier than we previously anticipated. Additionally, despite industry-wide concerns about commercial real estate, lower-income consumers, and non-bank financial institutions, CFR maintains excellent credit quality. Its net charge-offs are running at half the peer average in recent quarters. The company is also well-capitalized to weather a downturn, with a CET1 ratio of 14.1%.
$CFR
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Cnh Industrial N.v.
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We adjust our 12-month target price for CNH Industrial (CNHI) to $12 (cut from $14 on May 4), implying a 2026 P/E multiple of 30x, above its five-year average forward P/E of 12.4x, justified by expected margin recovery, in our view. We leave our EPS forecasts unchanged. We view management's reaffirmed 2026 guidance as a modest positive, as it suggests confidence in cost actions and inventory discipline. That said, we remain cautious because the recovery still depends on stabilizing agriculture demand, reducing dealer inventories, and offsetting tariff-related cost pressure. Looking ahead, we forecast CNHI's revenue to decline 1.9% Y/Y in 2026, reflecting continued weakness in agriculture equipment demand, lower production volumes, and ongoing dealer inventory normalization. However, we expect revenue to recover by 7.5% Y/Y in 2027, supported by a gradual improvement in end-market demand, and potential benefits from cost discipline and pricing actions. Hence, we maintain our Hold rating.
$CNH
US Markets
Philippine Manufacturing Activity Contracts on Middle East War Impact
Philippine manufacturing turned contractionary in April as the war in the Middle East reduced buying activity, new orders, and staffing numbers.S&P Global's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the Philippines posted 48.3 in April compared with an expansion of 51.3 in March.A reading of above 50 denotes expansion, while a reading below 50 means a contraction.The indicator fell to negative territory for the first time since November due to a decline in new orders.New export orders plunged to their steepest since the middle of 2020 amid closures of trade routes, which caused shipping halts, causing consumers to hesitate, S&P said.Deteriorating export market demand also dragged down total new sales, S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Maryam Baluch said."The decline in total new sales led Filipino manufacturers to see a stagnation in production levels in April," the debt watcher said in its report.Exporters have also reduced their working days to as short as three days per week from six on a shortage orders in the garment, food, handicrafts and furniture sectors, The Philippine Star reported April 16, citing a survey by the Philippine Exporters Confederation.Staffing levels slipped due to "modest" job cuts during the month, according to S&P.Philippine manufacturers have turned to inventory to keep up with production requirements amid a decline in new orders and an increase in input and shipping prices, S&P said.Despite the shortfalls, business confidence rose to a 17-month high as investors are bullish about a growing client base and improvements in underlying demand trends, the debt watcher said.
$^PSEi