-- 标普全球能源周五援引交易员的话称，中东冲突将在第二季度支撑冶金煤市场价格，因为冲突扰乱了煤炭供应链并推高了物流成本。 本月以来，由于市场对柴油短缺加剧的担忧日益加剧，冶金煤价格持续走高，这将尤其冲击澳大利亚的矿业运营。 标普能源表示，价格上涨的主要原因是运费上涨。普氏能源数据显示，3月份从澳大利亚东海岸到印度东海岸的巴拿马型散货船平均运费为每吨25.18美元，较2月份的每吨16.76美元上涨了50.2%。 普氏能源数据显示，3月份从澳大利亚东海岸到中国青澳的运费为每吨22.38美元，较2月份的平均每吨15.29美元上涨了46.4%。 交易员们对停火消息反应冷淡，认为中期内缓解供应冲击和推高价格的前景渺茫。 继第一季度潮湿天气之后，这进一步加剧了澳大利亚矿业的压力。 在中东冲突爆发之前，普氏能源资讯（Platts）优质低挥发性硬焦煤价格在第一季度上涨，于2月4日达到澳大利亚离岸价（FOB Australia）252.50美元/吨。 截至3月31日，优质低挥发性硬焦煤评估价格为澳大利亚离岸价（FOB Australia）236.80美元/吨，高于季度初的18.80美元/吨；同期，普氏能源资讯优质低挥发性硬焦煤到岸价（CFR China）从14.50美元/吨上涨至220美元/吨。 标普全球能源表示，由于煤炭可以替代部分终端用户的液化天然气和石油，预计冶金煤价格短期内将维持在高位。 研究报告指出，印度现货需求在经历了第一季度及2025年全年的强劲采购后可能会回落。 据悉，几家此前依赖现货市场采购优质煤炭的印度钢铁厂已于4月初与澳大利亚供应商签署了长期协议。 （市场动态信息来源于与全球市场专业人士的交流。我们认为这些信息来自可靠渠道，但其中可能包含传闻和推测。我们无法保证其准确性。）
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