-- 尽管净库存增幅低于预期,且近日美国大部分地区气温低于正常水平,但由于需求指标存在矛盾,美国天然气市场本周小幅走低。 6月近月合约价格本周跌至每百万英热单位2.75美元,低于4月24日的2.79美元/百万英热单位。 然而,根据美国能源信息署(EIA)周四发布的每周天然气库存补充数据,6月近月合约价格本周上涨0.08美元,至每百万英热单位2.730美元,高于5月1日的2.647美元/百万英热单位。 EIA数据显示,截至5月6日当周,天然气现货价格上涨0.15美元/百万英热单位,至每百万英热单位2.75美元,高于前一周的2.60美元/百万英热单位。 需求方面,全国气温低于正常水平,导致供暖和制冷需求下降。据伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)数据显示,受电力行业天然气消耗量下降12亿立方英尺/日的影响,美国天然气总需求量下降了7亿立方英尺/日。 此外,据美国能源信息署(EIA)援引LSEG数据称,过去一周液化天然气(LNG)原料气平均供应量为174亿立方英尺/日,较前一周下降7%。与此同时,多个主要终端正在进行计划维护。 据EIA数据显示,除瓦哈(Waha)外,大多数区域枢纽的天然气价格均有所上涨。瓦哈的价格在过去一周下跌了1.07美元/百万英热单位(MMBtu)。 据EIA数据显示,截至5月1日当周,天然气净流入量为630亿立方英尺,低于前一周的790亿立方英尺,使天然气总库存达到22050亿立方英尺。据 Investing.com 汇编的数据显示,本周的天然气净流入量为 720 亿立方英尺(Bcf),低于预期,引发市场反弹。 去年同期,美国能源信息署(EIA)报告称天然气净流入量为 1040 亿立方英尺,而过去五年同期平均水平为 770 亿立方英尺。 目前天然气总库存为 22050 亿立方英尺,比去年同期高出 750 亿立方英尺,增幅为 4%;比过去五年同期平均水平高出 1390 亿立方英尺,增幅为 7%。 截至 5 月 1 日当周,几乎所有地区都报告了天然气净流入量,其中东部地区的流入量最大,比前一周增加了 290 亿立方英尺,总库存量达到 3610 亿立方英尺,仅比过去五年同期平均水平低 10 亿立方英尺,降幅为 0.3%。 美国能源信息署 (EIA) 报告称,太平洋地区、山区和中南部非盐湖地区的天然气库存水位均高于各自的五年平均水平,而其他地区仍处于缺口状态。 据 Pinebrooke Energy Advisors 称,根据人口加权气温以及 2024 年和 2025 年的周变化,本周的库存报告显示,库存增幅为 4 月初以来的“最紧张”时期。 此外,根据贝克休斯 (BKR) 周五发布的数据,截至 5 月 8 日当周,美国天然气钻井平台数量从前一周的 130 座减少至 129 座。相比之下,一年前同期运营的天然气钻井平台数量为 108 座。 北美油气钻井平台总数(未来产量水平的关键早期指标)较前一周增加两座,从前一周的 670 座增至 672 座。 天气预报曾指出5月初和5月中旬气温将低于正常水平,但据美国国家气象局称,预计5月15日至21日期间,全国几乎全境气温将高于正常水平,这可能会增加制冷需求。 本周共有30艘液化天然气运输船离开美国港口,比上周的35艘减少了5艘,总运力为1150亿立方英尺,比前一周减少了180亿立方英尺。 国际市场上,截至5月6日当周,欧洲TTF天然气平均价格为每百万英热单位15.85美元,比前一周上涨0.44美元。 日韩市场天然气平均价格为每百万英热单位16.90美元,比前一周上涨约0.31美元。
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