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尽管向上修正,消费者信心指数仍跌至历史新低。

-- 密歇根大学周五公布的最终调查结果显示,美国消费者信心指数较4月份的初步估计有所改善,但仍处于历史低位,而近期通胀预期则录得一年来最大单月增幅。 主要消费者信心指数较上月下降6.6%至49.8。彭博社汇总的一项调查显示,市场普遍预期4月份的读数将从初步估计的47.6修正为48.5。 杰富瑞在一份报告中指出,尽管有所上调,但该指数仍处于历史低位。 “伊朗冲突似乎主要通过冲击汽油价格以及其他潜在价格来影响消费者的看法,”消费者调查主管许嘉欣表示。“相比之下,那些不能缓解供应限制或降低能源价格的军事和外交进展不太可能提振消费者信心。” 密歇根大学的调查显示,未来一年的通胀预期从3月份的3.8%跃升至本月的4.7%,创下4月份以来的最大单月增幅。五年期通胀预期从一个月前的3.2%攀升至3.5%,为去年10月以来的最高水平。 受美以伊战争的影响,能源价格飙升,这场战争导致霍尔木兹海峡的运输中断。本周早些时候,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普延长了与伊朗的停火协议,但他表示对伊朗港口的海上封锁将继续。 达拉斯联邦储备银行的研究人员上周表示,霍尔木兹海峡长达一个季度的关闭可能会使美国今年的通胀率上升0.6个百分点。 密歇根大学报告称,衡量当前经济状况的指标从3月份的55.8降至4月份的52.5,而预期指标下降7%至48.1。 许表示:“各政治派别、收入、年龄和教育程度的人群的信心均有所下降。” “无论从短期还是长期来看,预期商业环境均有所下降,几乎与一年前实施互惠关税制度时的水平相当。”

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