-- 多伦多证券交易所周二收高,这是过去十个交易日中的第九次上涨。投资者可能从加拿大联邦政府将于本月晚些时候发布春季经济报告的消息中获得新的提振。预计该报告将概述其应对伊朗战争和与美国持续贸易争端导致的高油价的计划。 S&P/TSX综合指数上涨223.12点,涨幅0.65%,收于34,102.36点,距离3月2日创下的34,541.27点的历史收盘纪录仅差不到500点。多数板块上涨,其中信息技术板块领涨,连续第二个交易日上涨2.75%。能源板块跌幅最大,下跌2.4%,原因是油价下跌。 在政治和经济方面,财政部长弗朗索瓦-菲利普·尚帕涅周二在国会表示,联邦政府将于4月28日提交春季经济报告,这一天也是自由党赢得大选一周年纪念日。 加拿大电视台(CTV)新闻指出,这将是总理马克·卡尼自内阁调整预算和财政报告发布时间表以来首次提交报告。 联邦政府已经开始透露一些可能成为经济报告核心内容的细节。加拿大电视台新闻指出,政府计划从下周开始暂时中止对汽油和柴油征收联邦燃油消费税。卡尼周二在渥太华宣布了这一消息,就在几个小时前,他的政府通过赢得三场补选以及一些其他党派议员的倒戈而获得了多数席位。 加拿大电视台新闻指出,预计此次税收暂停将使普通汽油每升价格降低10分,柴油每升价格降低4分。这项暂停措施将于4月20日生效,持续至9月7日。此举正值美伊关系紧张导致全球油价持续波动之际。 在宣布联邦燃油消费税后,卡尼在接受记者采访时表示,春季经济展望报告将对已公布的措施进行一些调整。“我们正在实施一系列措施。有些措施会在短期内见效,许多措施将在几年后产生效果,”卡尼说。“对于规模更大的项目和计划,我们必须从根本上改变我们的经济,使其更加强大、独立和繁荣,但我们希望确保所有加拿大人都能从中受益。” 他补充道:“在(春季展望报告)中,你们将会看到我们更加重视经济发展方向,并确保所有加拿大人都能从中受益。” 加拿大国家银行在谈到经济问题时表示,尽管采取了保护经济的措施(正如国际货币基金组织最新报告中所强调的那样),加拿大仍然保持了财政优势。 国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二将加拿大2026年国内生产总值(GDP)增长预期下调0.1个百分点至1.5%,同时维持对明年1.9%的预期不变。IMF于周二发布了最新的《世界经济展望》。报告预测,加拿大2025年GDP将增长1.7%。 加拿大国家银行经济学家伊桑·柯里(Ethan Currie)和沃伦·洛夫利(Warren Lovely)表示,尽管加拿大的增长前景基本保持不变,但他们指出,政府已采取措施保护和捍卫对贸易高度敏感的经济体。“最新的IMF预测反映了额外的预算赤字。净借款规模再次显著扩大,这与其他七国集团(G7)国家的情况方向不一致,后者的财政状况较10月26日IMF的报告有所改善。”这两位加拿大国家银行经济学家指出。 但他们表示,这并不意味着加拿大的财政状况不再良好。他们补充道:“尽管疫情后预算赤字有所上升,但与其他地区相比,尤其是与美国相比,加拿大的赤字仍然可控。预计美国未来几年不会出现同样程度的赤字削减。与此同时,由于政府/公共养老金层面拥有大量金融资产,加拿大严重的净债务问题只会进一步恶化。” 今日大宗商品方面,美国总统特朗普表示未来两天可能在巴基斯坦与伊朗举行进一步会谈后,西德克萨斯中质原油价格大幅下跌。与此同时,国际能源署表示,由于霍尔木兹海峡基本关闭,预计今年石油需求将因供应不足而下降。5月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格下跌7.80美元,收于每桶91.28美元;6月交割的布伦特原油期货价格下跌4.58美元,收于每桶94.78美元。 周二,由于美国公布的上月批发价格通胀率低于预期,美元走软,黄金价格走高。 5 月份交割的黄金期货价格最新上涨 82.90 美元,至每盎司 4,850.30 美元。
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