-- 周四早盘，美元兑主要贸易伙伴走低，此前市场公布了一系列经济数据，其中包括每周初请失业金人数、第一季度GDP初步数据、3月份个人收入和支出数据以及第一季度就业成本指数，所有这些数据都将于美国东部时间上午8:30公布。 4月份芝加哥采购经理人指数（PMI）将于美国东部时间上午9:45公布，随后是每周天然气库存数据（美国东部时间上午10:30）以及亚特兰大联邦储备银行对第二季度GDP预测的初步估计值（预计在中午前后公布）。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在周三的会议上维持了3.50%至3.75%的政策利率目标区间，并对声明进行了少量修改。但有三位委员反对取消声明中的宽松倾向，此外，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰也反对将目标区间下调25个基点。 周四外汇市场动态简报： 欧元/美元从周三美股收盘时的1.1676升至1.1702，但周三早盘一度跌破1.1708。根据隔夜公布的数据，欧元区4月份消费者价格指数（CPI）增速环比放缓，但同比增速加快；欧元区第一季度GDP增速环比放缓；欧元区3月份失业率下降。欧洲央行将于美东时间上午8:15公布下次会议公告，预计目标利率将维持不变。 英镑/美元从周三美股收盘时的1.3477升至1.3514，周三早盘一度跌至1.3508。英国央行周四早间以8比1的投票结果维持当前目标利率不变，并指出全球不确定性将推高通胀。英国央行下一次会议定于6月18日举行。周四没有英国经济数据公布。 美元/日元隔夜暴跌至156.51，此前周三美股收盘价为160.3923，周三早盘同一时间段为159.8116。市场猜测日本可能干预外汇市场以支撑日元。隔夜公布的数据显示，日本3月份工业生产下降，零售销售在经历了上月的下滑后于3月份反弹，而4月份日本家庭信心指数下降。日本央行下一次会议定于6月15日至16日举行。 美元/加元隔夜跌至1.3663，此前周三美股收盘价为1.3682，周三早盘同一时间段为1.3680。加拿大央行在周三的会议声明中表示，由于地缘政治紧张局势带来的不确定性，其维持目标利率不变。加拿大央行下次会议定于6月10日举行。加拿大2月和3月的GDP数据将于美国东部时间上午8:30公布。
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Oil & Energy
US Oil Update: Futures Tumble Amid Heightened US-Iran Tensions
Crude oil futures edged lower in midday trading on Thursday on reports that President Donald Trump would be briefed on expanded military options in Iran amid a deepening standoff between the US and Iran.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled by 2.27% to $104.37 per barrel, while Brent futures dropped by 3.51% to $113.88/bbl.US crude exports surged last week as global buyers turned to American producers for alternative supplies amid the ongoing Middle East supply disruptions. The latest data from the Energy Information Administration shows that US crude stockpiles dropped by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 mmbbls in the week ended April 24."This is a record high, surpassing the previous record of 5.63m b/d in February 2023," ING strategists said in a note Thursday, noting that these strong export volumes are increasingly tightening up the US domestic market.The inventories are now about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.President Trump is reviewing new military options while maintaining a strict naval blockade on Iranian ports, signaling a hardline stance amid stalled negotiations.The US President is reportedly set to receive a briefing from the head of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, on plans for a series of new military strikes on Iran to force it to negotiate a deal to end the conflict.Iranian authorities, meanwhile, have vowed to respond with "long and painful strikes" on US positions if Washington renewed attacks, while reasserting control over the Strait of Hormuz.Iran Revolutionary Guards said that any new US military aggression would trigger previously undisclosed Iranian capabilities, including advanced smart targeting systems."You have seen the fate of your bases in the region; you will also see the fate of your warships", IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted as saying.Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, also said that Tehran would eliminate what he described as the enemy's abuse of the waterway under the new management of the strait, as his country moves to assert its control over the key chokepoint.On the supply front, the global oil market is undergoing a fragile rebalancing nearly two months after disruptions in the Hormuz slashed crude flows, with limited system flexibility keeping supplies tight.Data analytics firm Kpler said about 60 days into the disruption, oil flows through the key chokepoint remain close to minimal levels, falling from about 20 million barrels per day to about 1 million b/d in April.Traffic through the Hormuz remains limited and uneven, with crossings continuing to show a sharp directional imbalance, according to Kpler. As of April 29, a total of 12 vessel crossings were recorded, up by four day-on-day, with all ships moving west-to-east and no return traffic observed.
Australia
Market Chatter: Citigroup Pares Back Physical Trading in Industrial Metals
Citigroup (C) is stepping back from physical trading in industrial metals and has notified a number of staff from the commodities team about potential redundancies, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing an employment tribunal in London.Citi said in a January letter that physical metals trading will no longer be a "core business activity," as the bank warned about 11 employees that they were at risk of redundancy and has let go a number of them since then, according to the report.Citi did not immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $128.19, Change: $+0.58, Percent Change: +0.45%
$C
Sectors
Update: Gold Rises as the Dollar and Yields Fall After a Report Showed U.S. Inflation Continues to Run Hot
(Updates prices.)Gold traded higher midafternoon Thursday as the dollar dropped after a report showed a key U.S. inflation measure rose last month while first-quarter gross domestic product rose less than expected.Gold for June delivery was last seen up US$71.30 to US$4,632.80 per ounce, remaining within the US$200 range it has traded within for the past month.The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, up from 0.4% fin February, but matching expectations according to Marketwatch. Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy, rose 3.2% annualized, up from 3.0% in February and again matching expectations.The bureau also issued its first estimate of first-quarter U.S. GDP growth, reporting the measure rose at a 2.0% pace, up from 0.5% in the prior quarter and under expectations for a 2.2% rise.Gold's gain comes despite expectations higher interest rates are on the way as the war on Iran pushes up inflation. The Federal Reserve's policy committee on Wednesday ended its two-day meeting on Wednesday leaving rates unchanged, but signaled hikes may be on the horizon as inflation climbs."Gold has attracted fresh demand despite rising bond yields and a firmer dollar following Wednesday's FOMC meeting, where rates were left unchanged, but several members signalled a desire to remove the easing bias as the Iran war continues to cloud the economic outlook," Saxo Bank wrote.Still, the dollar was sharply lower early following the economic data, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.81 points to 98.15. Treasury yields also fell, with the yield on the U.S. two-year note last seen down 7.1 basis points to 3.894%, while the 10-year note was paying 4.397%, down 3.7 points.
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