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受美伊和平协议乐观情绪提振,股市盘中上涨,油价暴跌

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-- 美国基准股指盘中走高,而油价则因投资者对有关华盛顿和德黑兰即将达成结束战争的潜在协议的报道做出反应而暴跌。 周三午盘过后,纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.6%,至25726点;标普500指数上涨1.1%,至7339.3点。两大股指均有望连续两日创下历史新高。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1%,至49792.1点。 在各板块中,工业板块表现最佳,上涨2.2%;能源板块跌幅最大,达4.1%。 西德克萨斯中质原油下跌6.6%,至每桶95.57美元;布伦特原油下跌7%,至每桶102.20美元。 据Axios周三报道,美国即将与伊朗就一份仅一页纸的谅解备忘录达成协议,以结束中东冲突,并为更详细的核谈判建立框架。Axios援引两位美国官员和另外两位知情人士的消息称,两国正朝着就一份旨在结束战争的简短备忘录达成一致迈进。 CNN也援引一位熟悉谈判的地区消息人士的消息称,两国正朝着达成协议的方向迈进。 麦格理在一份报告中表示:“受Axios消息的影响,美国交易员今天醒来后发现市场一片欢腾。就目前而言,好消息是,向Axios泄露协议存在的消息来源称,这是自战争爆发以来,双方最接近达成协议的一次。” 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普再次警告伊朗,称如果不能达成协议,“轰炸将再次开始”。 特朗普在社交媒体上发文称:“假设伊朗同意交出已达成的协议(这或许是一个很大的假设),那么这场已成传奇的‘史诗级愤怒’(Epic Fury)将会结束,而高效的封锁将使霍尔木兹海峡对包括伊朗在内的所有国家开放。” 据新闻报道,伊朗表示仍在审查美国的最新提议。 美国国债收益率盘中走低,10年期国债收益率下跌7.4个基点至4.36%,2年期国债收益率下跌7.2个基点至3.88%。 公司新闻方面,AMD(Advanced Micro Devices)股价飙升近17%,成为标普500指数中表现最佳的股票之一。这家芯片制造商周二晚些时候公布了强于预期的第一季度业绩,原因是人工智能基础设施的需求推动数据中心收入同比增长。 迪士尼(DIS)周三公布的第二财季业绩超出市场预期,所有业务部门的营收均实现增长。这家媒体和娱乐巨头重申了其下半年增长加速的预期。迪士尼股价上涨6.5%,成为道琼斯指数中表现最佳的股票。 英伟达(NVDA)紧随迪士尼之后,在道琼斯指数中上涨4.5%。特种玻璃制造商康宁(GLW)将根据与芯片巨头达成的多年合作协议,提升其光连接器件的产能,以支持人工智能工厂的建设。康宁股价飙升14%。 Arista Networks(ANET)股价暴跌16%,成为标普500指数中表现最差的股票之一。这家云网络公司周二晚些时候发布的第二财季营收预期略低于市场预期。 Arm(ARM)、Applovin(APP)、DoorDash(DASH)和华纳兄弟探索频道(WBD)以及其他一些公司预计将于周三收盘后发布财报。 经济新闻方面,ADP数据显示,4月份美国私营部门就业增速创一年多来新高。 牛津经济研究院在一份报告中指出:“ADP就业报告显示,私营部门就业人数的增长不仅表明劳动力市场稳定,而且可能在伊朗战争爆发后出现回暖迹象。如果周五公布的官方数据也反映出这一信号,鉴于盈亏平衡点较低(我们估计接近于零),失业率可能会下降。” 彭博社汇总的一项调查显示,预计美国劳工统计局周五公布的数据显示,4月份美国非农就业人数增加6.5万人,低于3月份的17.8万人。失业率预计维持在4.3%不变。 黄金价格上涨 2.8%,至每盎司 4,695.90 美元;白银价格上涨 5.3%,至每盎司 77.48 美元。

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Australia

Advanced Micro Devices Set to Command Half of Growing Server CPU Market, BofA Says

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is expected to capture about half of the total addressable market for server central processing units, which the company expects will exceed $120 billion by 2030, BofA Securities said in a note emailed Wednesday.The chip maker's updated forecast for server CPU TAM is double its previous estimate amid rising agentic artificial intelligence demand, according to the brokerage.The server CPU market is now expected to grow more than 35% annually, reaching over $120 billion by 2030, AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su said late Tuesday during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript.The company previously expected market growth of 18% annually over the next three to five years.BofA expects AMD to capture a roughly 50% share of the server CPU market, with the remaining half split between rivals Intel (INTC) and Arm (ARM)."Rising CPU TAM is good for all CPU vendors, but we expect AMD to maintain/expand share on (the) back of broad portfolio, rising enterprise focus, continued cloud leadership and consistent roadmap execution," BofA analyst Vivek Arya wrote. "Separately, we expect AMD to potentially announce other large customers for GPUs for (2027) and beyond."Shares of AMD surged 18% in Wednesday afternoon trade.The company reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter results late Tuesday, as demand for AI infrastructure pushed data center revenue higher year over year."Inferencing and agentic AI are increasing the need for server CPU compute as these workloads require additional CPU processing for orchestration, data movement, and parallel execution in addition to serving as the head nodes for GPUs and accelerators," Su told analysts during the earnings call. "As a result, we are seeing both stronger near-term demand and deeper engagement with customers on long-term capacity planning."AMD currently represents about 6% of the AI TAM, and that figure is expected to grow toward double digits by 2030, Arya said.Still, AMD remains "exposed to uncertain share allocation between numerous OpenAI suppliers" including Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO) and Cerebras Systems, he said.Following AMD's first-quarter results, BofA raised the company's 2026 and 2027 pro-forma earnings per share estimate by 9% each to $7.28 and $11.80. The brokerage is projecting AMD's 2030 EPS potential at more than $27, above management's $20-plus target.BofA reiterated AMD's buy rating and lifted the price target to $450 from $310.Price: $417.82, Change: $+62.56, Percent Change: +17.61%

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Oil & Energy

OPEC Production Slumps to 36-Year Low on Iran Conflict Impact, Bloomberg Survey Says

OPEC crude production slumped to its lowest level in 36 years last month as an ongoing Iran conflict choked off Persian Gulf exports and forced a wave of supply shut-ins, a Bloomberg survey showed on Wednesday.Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 420,000 barrels per day in April to an average of 20.55 million b/d. The total marks the group's lowest production ceiling since 1990, led by deepening supply disruptions in Kuwait and Iran.Last week, the producer group also faced another setback when the UAE announced its formal departure. Bloomberg's April survey includes figures for the UAE for the final month before its exit takes effect on May 1.Kuwait registered the group's steepest decline in April, with output falling by 470,000 b/d to an average of 800,000 b/d.Iran followed, after initially sustaining exports in the early phase of the conflict while restricting use of the strait by others, but has since come under mounting pressure from a US-led blockade on shipments.However, despite the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC agreed over the weekend to a nominal increase in output quotas for June.The symbolic move is intended to maintain the alliance's pre-war strategy of restoring production, though analysts noted the hikes remain largely "on paper" given the current maritime blockade.

Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Strong Buy Opinion On Shares Of Arista Networks, Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We keep our 12-month target at $175, based on 48.2x our 2026 EPS estimate. We increase our 2026 EPS estimate by $0.10 to $3.63 and 2027's by $0.17 to $4.42. While ANET was able to raise its full-year guidance, it was lower than we expected due to some notable challenges. It experienced industry-wide supply shortages, particularly in wafers, silicon chips, CPUs, optics, and memory. These shortages increased procurement costs and limited its ability to fully meet strong customer demand. Gross margin was under pressure due to a combination of higher supply chain costs (especially for memory and silicon) and a shift in customer mix toward larger accounts, which tend to have lower margins. It also paid more to secure supply continuity, further impacting margins. Lead times for critical components, particularly high-end chips used in AI platforms, were extremely long, sometimes extending to 52 weeks or more, requiring ANET to make multiyear purchase commitments and increasing the risk of inventory imbalances.

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