-- 受油價上漲和大量企業財報的影響，週二盤前交易中，標普500指數ETF（SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust，SPY）下跌0.7%，景順QQQ ETF（QQQ）下跌1.4%。 美國股指期貨漲跌互現，標普500指數期貨下跌0.7%，道瓊工業指數期貨上漲0.2%，那斯達克指數期貨下跌1.2%。 2月的凱斯-席勒房價指數和聯邦住房金融局房價指數將於美國東部時間上午9點公佈。 4月份的消費者信心指數和里士滿聯邦儲備銀行製造業指數將於美國東部時間上午10點公佈。 盤前交易中，比特幣下跌0.7%。在加密貨幣ETF中，ProShares比特幣策略ETF (BITO)下跌1%，以太坊ETF (EETH)下跌0.7%，比特幣和以太幣市值加權ETF (BETH)下跌0.01%。 重點關注： 工業板塊 道富工業精選產業SPDR ETF (XLI)下跌0.5%，先鋒工業指數基金 (VIS)持平，iShares美國工業ETF (IYJ)下跌0.01%。 Allegion (ALLE)股價在開盤前下跌超過4%，此前該公司公佈的第一季調整後收益低於預期。 贏家與輸家： 科技板塊 道富科技精選產業SPDR ETF (XLK)下跌2.3%，iShares美國科技ETF (IYW)下跌2%，iShares擴展科技業ETF (IGM)下跌2.2%。半導體ETF方面，道富SPDR標普半導體ETF (XSD)下跌4.2%，iShares半導體ETF (SOXX)下跌4%。 英特爾(INTC)股價週二盤前交易上漲超過1%，此前收盤上漲2.9%。彭博社週一援引知情人士消息報道稱，該公司已啟動投資級債券發行，以資助其142億美元的計劃，該計劃旨在重新獲得其愛爾蘭晶片製造廠的全部所有權。 能源板塊 iShares美國能源ETF (IYE)上漲1.4%，道富能源精選產業SPDR ETF (XLE)上漲1.7%。 BP (BP)股價在周二開盤前上漲超過3%，此前該公司公佈第一季基本重置成本利潤和銷售額均有所增長。 消費板塊 道富消費必需品精選產業SPDR ETF (XLP)上漲0.3%，先鋒消費必需品指數基金ETF (VDC)下跌0.3%。 iShares美國消費必需品ETF (IYK)上漲0.8%。道富非必需品精選產業SPDR ETF (XLY)下跌0.4%。 VanEck零售ETF (RTH)下跌0.2%，道富SPDR標普零售ETF (XRT)下跌0.2%。 可口可樂 (KO) 股價盤前上漲超過 2%，此前該公司公佈了高於預期的第一季調整後獲利和營收。 醫療保健 道富醫療保健精選行業 SPDR ETF (XLV) 上漲 0.4%，先鋒醫療保健指數基金 (VHT) 上漲 0.5%，而 iShares 美國醫療保健 ETF (IYH) 則持平。 iShares 生技 ETF (IBB) 下跌 0.1%。 捷邁生物 (ZBH) 股價盤前下跌超過 2%，此前一交易日收盤上漲 1.5%。該公司公佈了高於預期的第一季財務業績，並宣布其財務長 Suketu Upadhyay 將離職。 金融 道富金融精選產業 SPDR ETF (XLF) 上漲 0.4%。 Direxion每日三倍做多金融股票指數（FAS）上漲1.1%，而其對應的做空指數Direxion每日三倍做空金融股票指數（FAZ）則下跌1.4%。 巴克萊銀行（BCS）股價在盤前下跌超過2%。彭博社報道稱，該公司已在第一季預留2.28億英鎊（約3.079億美元）用於應對專業貸款機構MFS的倒閉。 大宗商品 紐約商品交易所近月合約美國西德州中質原油上漲5.1%，至每桶101.28美元。天然氣價格下跌0.7%，至每百萬英熱單位2.53美元。美國石油基金（USO）上漲4.7%，而美國天然氣基金（UNG）下跌0.4%。 紐約商品交易所（Comex）5月黃金期貨價格下跌2.6%，至每盎司4,573.30美元。白銀期貨價格下跌3.9%，至每盎司72.60美元。 SPDR黃金信託基金（GLD）下跌2.3%，iShares白銀信託基金（SLV）下跌3.9%。
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Sectors
Sector Update: Tech Stocks Fall Tuesday Afternoon
Tech stocks fell Tuesday afternoon with the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) dropping 1.8% and the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) slumping 4.5%.The Philadelphia Semiconductor index shed 3.7%.In corporate news, OpenAI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue, the Wall Street Journal reported late Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. Tech bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) fell 2.2%, Broadcom (AVGO) dropped 4.7%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shed 2.7%, Oracle (ORCL) lost 3.8%, and Intel (INTC) declined 1.7%.Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA (KLAC) were among the chip equipment companies believed to have received a letter last week from the US Department of Commerce ordering them to halt certain tool shipments to China's second-largest chipmaker Hua Hong, Reuters reported. Lam declined 3.5%, Applied Materials dropped 5.5%, and KLA shed 3.5%.Spotify Technology (SPOT) reported stronger-than-expected Q1 profit, but its premium subscriber growth and outlook disappointed investors. The stock fell 13%.
$AMAT$AMD$AVGO$INTC$KLAC$LRCX$NVDA$ORCL$SPOT
Oil & Energy
US Natural Gas Update: Futures Tick Higher on Shifting Weather Outlooks, Mixed Demand Signals
US natural gas futures edged higher in midday trading on Tuesday as updated weather models pointed to a split demand picture, with colder late-season conditions across the Northern US boosting heating demand while warmer forecasts in the South supported cooling load expectations.The front-month Henry Hub contract rose 0.81% to $2.72 per million British thermal units, while the continuous contract increased 0.04% to $2.55/MMBtu.NatGasWeather.com said models added several total degree days since last Friday, driven mainly by colder shifts and additional heating degree days. "Weather patterns are not nearly as bearish as they have been, and likely viewed as neutral, if not a touch bullish," the firm said Monday.The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the colder forecast should limit weekly inventory builds from reaching or exceeding 100 billion cubic feet through the second week of May.Fundamentals, however, remain loose. Trading Economics noted that elevated spring temperatures have already pushed storage levels to about 8% above seasonal norms. The US Energy Information Administration's last report showed inventories rising by 103 Bcf, well above expectations, last year's 77 Bcf build, and the five-year average increase of 64 Bcf.On the supply side, NRG Energy said dry gas production has softened slightly over the past week, averaging about 106.3 Bcf per day as gross output edged lower. It added that while production has eased from recent highs, supply remains comfortably above demand.Trading Economics separately said output has declined about 4.1 Bcf/d over the past 18 days to an 11-week low of 108.1 Bcf/d, as major producers scaled back in response to persistently low prices.Demand has also weakened with seasonal moderation. NRG Energy said total US consumption averaged near 101.7 Bcf/d over the week, with declines led by residential and commercial usage and only limited offset from power burn.LNG export feedgas has remained relatively steady, holding in a tight range around 18.8 to 19.0 Bcf/d, according to NRG Energy.
Oil & Energy
Update: UAE's OPEC+ Exit Weakens Cartel's Market Grip, Raises Volatility Risks, Analysts Say
(Updates with analyst comments from Macquarie in grafs 19-22.)The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, delivering a significant blow to the group's ability to manage global oil markets and raising questions about the future of coordinated supply policy, Rystad Energy strategists said on Tuesday.The Gulf state, which produces about 4.8 million barrels per day and has ambitions to raise output further, has been among a handful of members capable of adjusting supply to respond to market shocks."OPEC and OPEC+ have only ever been as strong as members' willingness to hold barrels back," Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a market note on Tuesday. "Losing a member with significant spare capacity takes a real tool out of the group's hands."The UAE's departure strips the producer group of one of its core mechanisms of influence, spare capacity that can be deployed to offset disruptions or withdrawn to support prices.Leon said the move weakens the group's ability to manage supply imbalances over time.Rystad said the impact on prices may be limited by ongoing geopolitical risks in the near term, including the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which continues to inject uncertainty into global supply flows.However, the longer-term implications are more profound. The consultancy said that with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, OPEC+ may find it difficult to calibrate output and maintain price stability.The shift comes as global oil demand approaches a potential peak, altering the incentives for low-cost producers. Rather than holding back production under quota systems, countries with available capacity may prioritize maximizing output and protecting market share.The move could place greater pressure on Saudi Arabia to shoulder a larger share of production adjustments to stabilize markets, a role Rystad analysts said may become difficult to sustain on its own.Saxo Bank strategists said the UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ marks a shift in global oil policy at a time when the ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted global energy flows and drained both commercial and strategic crude inventories worldwide."The UAE is seizing the opportunity to exit OPEC and remove production constraints that have limited its ability to utilize growing capacity," said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.The UAE has steadily expanded its production capacity in recent years, driven by upstream investments led by Abu Dhabi's Adnoc Group. Saxo Bank said that before output fell last month to 2.2 million b/d, production had climbed to about 3.6 mmb/d.The country's current crude production capacity stands at about 4.85 mmb/d, with a target of reaching 5 mmb/d by 2027.Meanwhile, Sparta Commodities analysts said the producer cartel is facing renewed questions over its long-term cohesion after the UAE's departure, though the immediate impact on global oil balances remains muted."For the short-term, it means very little in terms of oil balances with the Strait of Hormuz closed," the analysts said, adding that the implications are more in the longer-term if and when the OPEC+ group gets back to its prior role in the market.Over the longer term, the UAE is expected to increase production to about 4.5-4.8 million b/d, up from its OPEC+ quota of about 3.4 million b/d. Sparta said the shift could introduce additional barrels into the market, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.With the exit, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures, said the UAE is positioning itself to ramp up oil production as it seeks greater autonomy outside the constraints of OPEC+.Flynn said that the UAE has long been constrained by an outdated production baseline set at about 3.2 million b/d in about 2018. However, the Gulf state has since made significant investments in upstream capacity, lifting its production potential to exceed 5 million b/d in the coming years.Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, said the UAE's exit reflects a broader shift in producer strategy."At some point in every country's lifecycle, it's time to move on," Dwivedi said in an emailed response to.He added that there has not been a "big response" in markets so far. "Eventually the market will be forced to deal with oil production growth from an unsanctioned Iran, a rejuvenated Venezuela and an unshackled UAE," the strategist said.Dwivedi added he does not expect the announcement to drive any meaningful near-term moves in the crude forward curve or spot prices. "It could make oil balances more bearish over the next year or two, but not right away," he said.