-- 受成本上升和需求疲軟的雙重打擊,日本4月份服務業成長放緩至11個月以來的最低水準。同時,企業漲價速度創歷史新高,加劇了市場對日本央行可能升息前通膨壓力不斷上升的擔憂。 標普全球市場情報公司(S&P Global Market Intelligence)彙編的數據顯示,4月au Jibun銀行日本服務業採購經理人指數(PMI)從3月的53.4降至51,創下自2025年5月以來的最低增速。高於50則表示經濟成長。 新業務成長速度也放緩至去年10月以來的最低水準。由於中東衝突帶來的不確定性以及物價高企抑制了海外銷售,出口需求五個月來首次萎縮。 同時,受與衝突相關的燃料和進口成本上漲以及日圓貶值的影響,投入成本以一年來最快的速度上漲。企業將這些成本轉嫁給消費者,導致售價漲幅創下自2007年調查開始以來的第三高。 綜合製造業和服務業採購經理人指數(PMI)從53小幅回落至52.2,儘管製造業產出在需求提前釋放的背景下實現了12年多來的最快增速。 標普全球市場情報公司經濟副總監安娜貝爾·菲德斯表示:“基礎數據顯示,經濟放緩源於服務業增長乏力,而製造業產出增速創下12年多來的最快,這主要是由於中東戰爭導致需求提前釋放。” 這些數據進一步表明,日本經濟正步入一個對政策制定者更為艱難的階段,經濟活動放緩與持續的通膨壓力同時出現。 「戰爭前景的不確定性以及未來物價上漲和消費者需求疲軟的可能性,持續抑制著商業信心。值得注意的是,對未來一年的樂觀情緒跌至2020年8月新冠疫情爆發以來的最低水平,」菲德斯補充道。 另一項政府數據顯示,3月實質薪資年增1%,連續第三個月成長;名目薪資上漲2.7%,達317,254日圓。然而,薪資成長仍落後通膨,消費者物價上漲1.6%。 服務需求疲軟和物價壓力加速上升的雙重壓力,可能會使日本央行的政策前景更加複雜,因為市場越來越預期央行會在6月升息。日本央行在4月維持利率不變,但警告稱,隨著企業繼續提高薪資和物價,通膨可能會超出預期。
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