-- 受中東衝突導致油價飆漲的推動,澳洲家庭支出在3月創下兩年來最快成長。 澳洲統計局週二公佈的數據顯示,經季節性調整後,3月家庭支出較上季成長1.6%,較上月0.3%的增幅顯著加快,但略低於市場預期的1.8%的增幅。 澳洲統計局商業統計主管湯姆·萊伊表示:“3月份家庭支出強勁增長,主要原因是交通成本上漲5.1%,而燃油價格上漲是受中東衝突影響的結果。” 3月下旬,伊朗衝突擾亂了全球石油市場,尤其是霍爾木茲海峽的關閉,導致燃油價格達到高峰。 這次油價飆漲也推高了大眾運輸的使用率,因為通勤者避免駕駛私家車;同時,由於消費者擔心供應鏈問題而囤積商品,食品支出也增加了1.7%。 澳洲聯邦銀行高級經濟學家阿什溫克拉克指出,燃油成本上漲應會在今年稍晚引發支出成長放緩。 克拉克表示:“我們預計今年支出成長將進一步放緩。家庭消費預期放緩是經濟放緩並趨於平衡的必要條件。” 澳新銀行分析師也持謹慎觀點,經濟學家亞倫·盧克和澳大利亞首席經濟學家亞當·博伊頓表示:“儘管今年第一季度表現相對穩健,但我們仍然預計未來支出增長速度將放緩。” 一些分析師認為,由於家庭支出在石油衝擊下仍保持韌性,因此央行仍有空間應對通膨。 根據彭博新聞報道,凱投宏觀表示,澳洲儲備銀行“不會對進一步收緊政策有任何重大顧慮”,因為家庭支出“在油價衝擊下表現良好”。 週二,澳洲儲備銀行將官方現金利率上調 25 個基點至 4.35%,以應對伊朗衝突引發的通膨壓力,並提振通膨。
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