-- 週二盤前，美國股指期貨普遍走低，美伊僵局持續，看不到盡頭。同時，OpenAI未能達成目標的消息也引發了人們對資料中心巨額支出的擔憂。 道瓊工業指數期貨上漲0.1%，標普500指數期貨下跌0.8%，那斯達克指數期貨下跌1.4%。 路透社引述一位美國官員的話報道，川普總統對伊朗提出的結束中東衝突的最新方案感到不滿。伊朗提議將核談判延後到以後，以此重新開放霍爾木茲海峽，而川普則希望從一開始就解決核問題。 根據《華爾街日報》引述知情人士的消息報道，微軟支持的OpenAI近期未能達到其內部設定的新用戶和營收目標，這引發了公司領導層對其能否支撐資料中心巨額支出的擔憂。 交易員們正在消化最新一輪的財報。可口可樂 (KO) 公佈的第一季調整後獲利和營收均有所成長，而諾華 (NVS) 則公佈的第一季核心獲利和淨銷售額均出現下滑。 油價上漲，近月全球基準北海布蘭特原油上漲2.5%，至每桶104.21美元；美國西德州中質原油上漲3.6%，至每桶99.84美元。 彭博社總結的預測顯示，美國東部時間上午9點公佈的2月標普-凱斯-席勒房價指數預計將上漲0.2%，與上月漲幅相近。 美國東部時間上午10點公佈的4月消費者信心指數預計將從91.8降至89.0。 其他國際市場方面，日本日經指數收跌1%，香港恆生指數收跌1%，中國上證綜指收跌0.2%。同時，英國富時100指數下跌0.1%，德國DAX指數在歐洲午後交易時段下跌0.5%。 在股票市場，OpenAI的最大投資者微軟和依賴ChatGPT開發者OpenAI開展雲端運算計畫的甲骨文公司(ORCL)的股價分別下跌1.3%和7.6%。諾華製藥(Novartis)在發布第一季財報後，股價下跌1.4%。 另一方面，根據路透社報道，埃尼集團(Eni)和雷普索爾(Repsol)宣布計劃提高委內瑞拉卡頓四號海上天然氣田的產量，受此消息提振，埃尼集團(E)股價上漲2.7%。家居用品零售商Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)公佈第一季調整後虧損收窄、營收成長，受此消息提振，Bed Bath & Beyond股價上漲29%。可口可樂(Coca-Cola)在發布第一季財報後，股價上漲3%。
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Sectors
Sector Update: Tech Stocks Fall Tuesday Afternoon
Tech stocks fell Tuesday afternoon with the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) dropping 1.8% and the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) slumping 4.5%.The Philadelphia Semiconductor index shed 3.7%.In corporate news, OpenAI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue, the Wall Street Journal reported late Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. Tech bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) fell 2.2%, Broadcom (AVGO) dropped 4.7%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shed 2.7%, Oracle (ORCL) lost 3.8%, and Intel (INTC) declined 1.7%.Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA (KLAC) were among the chip equipment companies believed to have received a letter last week from the US Department of Commerce ordering them to halt certain tool shipments to China's second-largest chipmaker Hua Hong, Reuters reported. Lam declined 3.5%, Applied Materials dropped 5.5%, and KLA shed 3.5%.Spotify Technology (SPOT) reported stronger-than-expected Q1 profit, but its premium subscriber growth and outlook disappointed investors. The stock fell 13%.
$AMAT$AMD$AVGO$INTC$KLAC$LRCX$NVDA$ORCL$SPOT
Oil & Energy
US Natural Gas Update: Futures Tick Higher on Shifting Weather Outlooks, Mixed Demand Signals
US natural gas futures edged higher in midday trading on Tuesday as updated weather models pointed to a split demand picture, with colder late-season conditions across the Northern US boosting heating demand while warmer forecasts in the South supported cooling load expectations.The front-month Henry Hub contract rose 0.81% to $2.72 per million British thermal units, while the continuous contract increased 0.04% to $2.55/MMBtu.NatGasWeather.com said models added several total degree days since last Friday, driven mainly by colder shifts and additional heating degree days. "Weather patterns are not nearly as bearish as they have been, and likely viewed as neutral, if not a touch bullish," the firm said Monday.The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the colder forecast should limit weekly inventory builds from reaching or exceeding 100 billion cubic feet through the second week of May.Fundamentals, however, remain loose. Trading Economics noted that elevated spring temperatures have already pushed storage levels to about 8% above seasonal norms. The US Energy Information Administration's last report showed inventories rising by 103 Bcf, well above expectations, last year's 77 Bcf build, and the five-year average increase of 64 Bcf.On the supply side, NRG Energy said dry gas production has softened slightly over the past week, averaging about 106.3 Bcf per day as gross output edged lower. It added that while production has eased from recent highs, supply remains comfortably above demand.Trading Economics separately said output has declined about 4.1 Bcf/d over the past 18 days to an 11-week low of 108.1 Bcf/d, as major producers scaled back in response to persistently low prices.Demand has also weakened with seasonal moderation. NRG Energy said total US consumption averaged near 101.7 Bcf/d over the week, with declines led by residential and commercial usage and only limited offset from power burn.LNG export feedgas has remained relatively steady, holding in a tight range around 18.8 to 19.0 Bcf/d, according to NRG Energy.
Oil & Energy
Update: UAE's OPEC+ Exit Weakens Cartel's Market Grip, Raises Volatility Risks, Analysts Say
(Updates with analyst comments from Macquarie in grafs 19-22.)The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, delivering a significant blow to the group's ability to manage global oil markets and raising questions about the future of coordinated supply policy, Rystad Energy strategists said on Tuesday.The Gulf state, which produces about 4.8 million barrels per day and has ambitions to raise output further, has been among a handful of members capable of adjusting supply to respond to market shocks."OPEC and OPEC+ have only ever been as strong as members' willingness to hold barrels back," Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a market note on Tuesday. "Losing a member with significant spare capacity takes a real tool out of the group's hands."The UAE's departure strips the producer group of one of its core mechanisms of influence, spare capacity that can be deployed to offset disruptions or withdrawn to support prices.Leon said the move weakens the group's ability to manage supply imbalances over time.Rystad said the impact on prices may be limited by ongoing geopolitical risks in the near term, including the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which continues to inject uncertainty into global supply flows.However, the longer-term implications are more profound. The consultancy said that with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, OPEC+ may find it difficult to calibrate output and maintain price stability.The shift comes as global oil demand approaches a potential peak, altering the incentives for low-cost producers. Rather than holding back production under quota systems, countries with available capacity may prioritize maximizing output and protecting market share.The move could place greater pressure on Saudi Arabia to shoulder a larger share of production adjustments to stabilize markets, a role Rystad analysts said may become difficult to sustain on its own.Saxo Bank strategists said the UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ marks a shift in global oil policy at a time when the ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted global energy flows and drained both commercial and strategic crude inventories worldwide."The UAE is seizing the opportunity to exit OPEC and remove production constraints that have limited its ability to utilize growing capacity," said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.The UAE has steadily expanded its production capacity in recent years, driven by upstream investments led by Abu Dhabi's Adnoc Group. Saxo Bank said that before output fell last month to 2.2 million b/d, production had climbed to about 3.6 mmb/d.The country's current crude production capacity stands at about 4.85 mmb/d, with a target of reaching 5 mmb/d by 2027.Meanwhile, Sparta Commodities analysts said the producer cartel is facing renewed questions over its long-term cohesion after the UAE's departure, though the immediate impact on global oil balances remains muted."For the short-term, it means very little in terms of oil balances with the Strait of Hormuz closed," the analysts said, adding that the implications are more in the longer-term if and when the OPEC+ group gets back to its prior role in the market.Over the longer term, the UAE is expected to increase production to about 4.5-4.8 million b/d, up from its OPEC+ quota of about 3.4 million b/d. Sparta said the shift could introduce additional barrels into the market, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.With the exit, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures, said the UAE is positioning itself to ramp up oil production as it seeks greater autonomy outside the constraints of OPEC+.Flynn said that the UAE has long been constrained by an outdated production baseline set at about 3.2 million b/d in about 2018. However, the Gulf state has since made significant investments in upstream capacity, lifting its production potential to exceed 5 million b/d in the coming years.Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, said the UAE's exit reflects a broader shift in producer strategy."At some point in every country's lifecycle, it's time to move on," Dwivedi said in an emailed response to.He added that there has not been a "big response" in markets so far. "Eventually the market will be forced to deal with oil production growth from an unsanctioned Iran, a rejuvenated Venezuela and an unshackled UAE," the strategist said.Dwivedi added he does not expect the announcement to drive any meaningful near-term moves in the crude forward curve or spot prices. "It could make oil balances more bearish over the next year or two, but not right away," he said.