-- 周二盘前，美国股指期货涨跌互现，美伊僵局持续，看不到尽头。与此同时，OpenAI未能达成目标的消息引发了人们对其在数据中心巨额支出的担忧。 道琼斯工业平均指数期货上涨0.2%，标普500指数期货下跌0.6%，纳斯达克指数期货下跌1.1%。 据路透社援引一位美国官员的话报道，特朗普总统对伊朗提出的结束中东冲突的最新方案感到不满。伊朗提议将核谈判推迟到以后，以此重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，而特朗普则希望从一开始就解决核问题。 据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士的消息报道，微软支持的OpenAI近期未能实现其新用户和营收的内部目标，这引发了公司领导层对其能否支撑其在数据中心方面的巨额支出的担忧。 交易员们正在消化最新一轮的财报。可口可乐 (KO) 公布的第一季度调整后盈利和营收均有所增长，而诺华 (NVS) 则公布的第一季度核心盈利和净销售额均出现下滑。 油价上涨，近月全球基准北海布伦特原油上涨4%，至每桶105.74美元；美国西德克萨斯中质原油上涨5.4%，至每桶101.75美元。 彭博社汇总的预测显示，将于美国东部时间上午9点公布的2月份标普-凯斯-席勒房价指数预计将上涨0.2%，与上月涨幅相近。 将于美国东部时间上午10点公布的4月份消费者信心指数预计将从91.8降至89.0。
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Sectors
Sector Update: Tech Stocks Fall Tuesday Afternoon
Tech stocks fell Tuesday afternoon with the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) dropping 1.8% and the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) slumping 4.5%.The Philadelphia Semiconductor index shed 3.7%.In corporate news, OpenAI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue, the Wall Street Journal reported late Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. Tech bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) fell 2.2%, Broadcom (AVGO) dropped 4.7%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shed 2.7%, Oracle (ORCL) lost 3.8%, and Intel (INTC) declined 1.7%.Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA (KLAC) were among the chip equipment companies believed to have received a letter last week from the US Department of Commerce ordering them to halt certain tool shipments to China's second-largest chipmaker Hua Hong, Reuters reported. Lam declined 3.5%, Applied Materials dropped 5.5%, and KLA shed 3.5%.Spotify Technology (SPOT) reported stronger-than-expected Q1 profit, but its premium subscriber growth and outlook disappointed investors. The stock fell 13%.
$AMAT$AMD$AVGO$INTC$KLAC$LRCX$NVDA$ORCL$SPOT
Oil & Energy
US Natural Gas Update: Futures Tick Higher on Shifting Weather Outlooks, Mixed Demand Signals
US natural gas futures edged higher in midday trading on Tuesday as updated weather models pointed to a split demand picture, with colder late-season conditions across the Northern US boosting heating demand while warmer forecasts in the South supported cooling load expectations.The front-month Henry Hub contract rose 0.81% to $2.72 per million British thermal units, while the continuous contract increased 0.04% to $2.55/MMBtu.NatGasWeather.com said models added several total degree days since last Friday, driven mainly by colder shifts and additional heating degree days. "Weather patterns are not nearly as bearish as they have been, and likely viewed as neutral, if not a touch bullish," the firm said Monday.The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the colder forecast should limit weekly inventory builds from reaching or exceeding 100 billion cubic feet through the second week of May.Fundamentals, however, remain loose. Trading Economics noted that elevated spring temperatures have already pushed storage levels to about 8% above seasonal norms. The US Energy Information Administration's last report showed inventories rising by 103 Bcf, well above expectations, last year's 77 Bcf build, and the five-year average increase of 64 Bcf.On the supply side, NRG Energy said dry gas production has softened slightly over the past week, averaging about 106.3 Bcf per day as gross output edged lower. It added that while production has eased from recent highs, supply remains comfortably above demand.Trading Economics separately said output has declined about 4.1 Bcf/d over the past 18 days to an 11-week low of 108.1 Bcf/d, as major producers scaled back in response to persistently low prices.Demand has also weakened with seasonal moderation. NRG Energy said total US consumption averaged near 101.7 Bcf/d over the week, with declines led by residential and commercial usage and only limited offset from power burn.LNG export feedgas has remained relatively steady, holding in a tight range around 18.8 to 19.0 Bcf/d, according to NRG Energy.
Oil & Energy
Update: UAE's OPEC+ Exit Weakens Cartel's Market Grip, Raises Volatility Risks, Analysts Say
(Updates with analyst comments from Macquarie in grafs 19-22.)The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, delivering a significant blow to the group's ability to manage global oil markets and raising questions about the future of coordinated supply policy, Rystad Energy strategists said on Tuesday.The Gulf state, which produces about 4.8 million barrels per day and has ambitions to raise output further, has been among a handful of members capable of adjusting supply to respond to market shocks."OPEC and OPEC+ have only ever been as strong as members' willingness to hold barrels back," Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a market note on Tuesday. "Losing a member with significant spare capacity takes a real tool out of the group's hands."The UAE's departure strips the producer group of one of its core mechanisms of influence, spare capacity that can be deployed to offset disruptions or withdrawn to support prices.Leon said the move weakens the group's ability to manage supply imbalances over time.Rystad said the impact on prices may be limited by ongoing geopolitical risks in the near term, including the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which continues to inject uncertainty into global supply flows.However, the longer-term implications are more profound. The consultancy said that with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, OPEC+ may find it difficult to calibrate output and maintain price stability.The shift comes as global oil demand approaches a potential peak, altering the incentives for low-cost producers. Rather than holding back production under quota systems, countries with available capacity may prioritize maximizing output and protecting market share.The move could place greater pressure on Saudi Arabia to shoulder a larger share of production adjustments to stabilize markets, a role Rystad analysts said may become difficult to sustain on its own.Saxo Bank strategists said the UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ marks a shift in global oil policy at a time when the ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted global energy flows and drained both commercial and strategic crude inventories worldwide."The UAE is seizing the opportunity to exit OPEC and remove production constraints that have limited its ability to utilize growing capacity," said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.The UAE has steadily expanded its production capacity in recent years, driven by upstream investments led by Abu Dhabi's Adnoc Group. Saxo Bank said that before output fell last month to 2.2 million b/d, production had climbed to about 3.6 mmb/d.The country's current crude production capacity stands at about 4.85 mmb/d, with a target of reaching 5 mmb/d by 2027.Meanwhile, Sparta Commodities analysts said the producer cartel is facing renewed questions over its long-term cohesion after the UAE's departure, though the immediate impact on global oil balances remains muted."For the short-term, it means very little in terms of oil balances with the Strait of Hormuz closed," the analysts said, adding that the implications are more in the longer-term if and when the OPEC+ group gets back to its prior role in the market.Over the longer term, the UAE is expected to increase production to about 4.5-4.8 million b/d, up from its OPEC+ quota of about 3.4 million b/d. Sparta said the shift could introduce additional barrels into the market, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.With the exit, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures, said the UAE is positioning itself to ramp up oil production as it seeks greater autonomy outside the constraints of OPEC+.Flynn said that the UAE has long been constrained by an outdated production baseline set at about 3.2 million b/d in about 2018. However, the Gulf state has since made significant investments in upstream capacity, lifting its production potential to exceed 5 million b/d in the coming years.Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, said the UAE's exit reflects a broader shift in producer strategy."At some point in every country's lifecycle, it's time to move on," Dwivedi said in an emailed response to.He added that there has not been a "big response" in markets so far. "Eventually the market will be forced to deal with oil production growth from an unsanctioned Iran, a rejuvenated Venezuela and an unshackled UAE," the strategist said.Dwivedi added he does not expect the announcement to drive any meaningful near-term moves in the crude forward curve or spot prices. "It could make oil balances more bearish over the next year or two, but not right away," he said.