-- 印尼中央统计局周二公布的数据显示，受政府支出部分推动，印尼第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.61%。 作为东南亚最大的经济体，印尼今年的GDP实现了自2022年以来最大的年度增幅。但一些专家警告称，随着政府缩减支出，以及能源价格上涨抑制企业和消费者的需求，未来几个季度的经济增长可能会放缓。 为刺激家庭消费，雅加达加大了包括免费餐食计划和乡村合作社资助在内的旗舰社会福利项目的投入，政府第一季度支出同比增长21.8%。 此外，政府还在第一季度大力支出，以支持斋月和开斋节期间的各项支出，因为斋月和开斋节期间许多企业都会歇业。 尽管面临挑战，马来西亚最大的银行马来亚银行（Maybank）的经济学家表示，印尼经济在2026年全年仍可能保持相对强劲的5%增长。 据新加坡《商业时报》报道，马来亚银行分析师Brian Lee和Hak Bin Chua表示，印尼经济增长面临的阻力可能会在第二季度加剧，国际贸易成本压力将抑制出口。 分析师补充说，燃油价格上涨和印尼盾贬值可能会推高未来的进口支出。 此外，人们还担心印尼中央政府的支出不可持续。 《商业时报》报道称：“印尼大学宏观经济、金融和政治经济研究小组的一组经济学家指出，政府正在继续推行财政成本高昂的旗舰项目，包括一项全国性的免费午餐计划。” 《商业时报》指出，对财政支出和政府借贷的担忧也扰乱了金融市场，包括穆迪和标普全球评级等信用评级机构的负面评论。 4月中旬，标普全球将印尼债券的评级定为“BBB/A-2”，其中BBB-是“投资级”政府债券的最低评级。 标普全球表示，如果印尼国债水平继续上升，BBB评级可能会被下调。
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