-- 根据印尼统计局周一公布的官方数据，印尼第一季度实现贸易顺差55.5亿美元，这主要得益于强劲的非油气贸易顺差，尽管进口增速加快。 第一季度印尼出口额同比增长0.34%，达到669亿美元；进口额同比增长10.05%，达到613亿美元。 数据显示，仅3月份，印尼出口额同比下降3.1%，至225.3亿美元；而进口额则小幅增长1.5%，达到192.1亿美元。
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International
Australian State Economies to Diverge as National Growth Slows Down Into 2027, Westpac Says
Australian states' economic performances are poised to diverge as national growth slows down through 2026 and into 2027, Westpac said in a Monday report.The mining-based states of Queensland and Western Australia are once again expected to lead other regions as higher energy prices help drive sizeable income windfalls, which should provide a cushion for households against tighter financial conditions and help keep overall activity relatively resilient.The bank expects gross state product (GSP) growth in Queensland to slow to a year‑average pace of 1.8% in 2027 from 2.6% in 2026, accelerating to around 2% in 2028, with Olympics‑related infrastructure spending reinforcing momentum, the bank said.Like Queensland, higher dwelling prices are anticipated to support near-term demand through wealth effects in Western Australia, where Westpac expects GSP growth to moderate to 1.8% in 2027 from around 2.4% in 2026 before picking up to 2.4% in 2028.South Australia is also relatively well-positioned, given strength in both public and private activity, the bank said.However, the consumption-led states of New South Wales and Victoria are expected to underperform, with Victoria being the only state where consumption per capita is anticipated to fall below 2019 levels by 2028, Westpac said.The bank expects New South Wales' GSP growth to slow to just 0.8% in 2027 from around 1.9%, and forecasts Victoria's growth to reach 0.7% in 2027 from around 2% in 2026."While rate cuts in 2028 should eventually stabilize conditions, the longer the global shock persists, the deeper and more uneven the adjustment across states is likely to be," Westpac said.
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International
Indonesia's Inflation Eases to 2.42% in April
Indonesia's consumer prices rose 2.42% annually in April, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 111.09, according to data released by Statistics Indonesia on Monday.The latest inflation rate, however, slowed from 3.48% in March.Monthly, inflation stood at 0.13%, while year-to-date inflation reached 1.06%, indicating relatively contained price pressures compared with earlier months.Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose 2.44%, while monthly, it edged up 0.23%, the data showed.
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International
'Inevitable Market Reckoning' Coming for Oil Supply Through Either Higher Prices or Product Shortages, ANZ Research Says
Several factors are shielding oil prices from the extensive supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict; however, an "inevitable market reckoning" is coming, through higher prices or product shortages, according to a Monday report by ANZ Research.In physical markets, there have been few signs of an oil supply crisis, particularly in the US, where commercial crude oil stocks stand at 456,000 barrels in the week ending April 24, which is 24,000 barrels higher than at the same period a year ago.High inventory levels in Asia have also helped buffer supply losses, with China's crude oil reserves estimated to be around 1.7 billion barrels. This has been aided by demand rationing and strategic reserve releases.Overall, oil production from the Persian Gulf fell by 10.7 million barrels per day over the February-March period. Over 15 million barrels per day are being held off the market, and cumulative losses are approaching 1 billion barrels. Global crude oil inventories fell by nearly 200 million barrels in April, and the June quarter will see the largest quarterly crude inventory drawdown in history at 6.5 million barrels per day.The bank's global oil market balance shows a deficit of 1.6 million barrels per day for 2026, which assumes rising supply and weak demand in the December quarter. Its outlook for supply is based on a gradual recovery starting in June and progressing through to the end of the year. Under this scenario, damage to supply will linger, with the recovery in Persian Gulf supply being asymmetric.If the supply crunch starts to ease in the second half of the year, both in terms of flows through the strait and the restart of upstream production, the ongoing threat of a sudden closure of the strait would keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, which would keep Brent crude oil above $90 per barrel for the remainder of the year and elevated prices would remain a feature of the oil market into 2027.If the conflict persists and supplies remain disrupted, prices would likely surge towards $200 per barrel. If the US and Iran reach a peace deal, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, Brent crude could fall to around $83 per barrel to $87 per barrel.
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