-- 加拿大豐業銀行繼續預期美元兌所有主要已開發經濟體貨幣將普遍走弱,支撐了其對加幣走強的預期。 該行在其最新的外匯展望中表示,政策利率路徑的分歧仍然是其基本面展望的核心支柱,並補充說,美元前景在2026年下半年以及2027年底的預測期內仍將保持疲軟。 同時,加幣正逐步恢復在2024-2025年間的跌勢,並朝著加拿大豐業銀行的預測目標穩步前進。 加拿大豐業銀行全球外匯副董事埃里克·西奧雷特表示,加元在1月初創下週期新高,但在3月初爆發的美伊衝突初期幾週內回吐了早盤漲幅。 「加元近期的上漲顯著縮小了我們估值與美元/加元之間的折價(溢價)。基本面表明加元走強,我們預計隨著市場擺脫衝突相關擔憂,加元將在中期內保持強勢。” 「加拿大央行的預測方向也保持不變,但累計75個基點的緊縮措施已提前至2026年實施,而最終利率仍維持在3.00%不變。我們對美元/加元的預測也保持不變,我們繼續設定目標,即到2026年底達到1.33,到2027年底達到1.30。」Theoret。 然而,加拿大豐業銀行認為,貿易政策的不確定性仍是7月1日美墨加協定(USMCA)審查的主要風險。
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