-- 加拿大政府週二公佈了春季經濟展望報告,而總理馬克·卡尼在前一天宣布計劃設立一個初始資本為250億加元的主權財富基金時,已經搶先報道了這一消息,加拿大豐業銀行表示。 該銀行指出,這基本上就是此次展望報告中「投資」議程的全部內容,除此之外,未來淨新增資本支出僅10億加幣。 預計的財政意外之財——高達603億加元——大部分被用於額外支出545億加元。豐業銀行指出,情況有些複雜,其中「新措施」(淨額375億加元)涵蓋了諸如食品雜貨補貼和燃油稅暫停等已知項目,而「2025年預算案以來的政策」(170億加元)則以附件中一系列令人眼花繚亂的部門支出延期和調整清單的形式出現。 最新預測顯示,2026財年財政赤字大幅下降,為669億加元,低於先前預測的783億加元。但計入新增支出後,往年赤字與先前預測基本持平。赤字略有改善主要得益於未來一段時間內國內生產毛額(GDP)的走強。 加拿大豐業銀行指出,由於債務水準下降以及GDP基數擴大,淨債務下降速度略有加快。 由於預算案公佈前已明確支持措施,新措施對短期經濟成長的影響微乎其微。儘管過去六個月公佈的聯邦財政支持總額已接近1,450億加元,但仍需進一步落實,豐業銀行補充道。 加拿大豐業銀行認為,加拿大央行週三的政策決定不會推翻其既定策略,但鑑於當前經濟情勢動盪,央行可能會強化其樂觀預期。儘管市場普遍預期維持利率不變,但此次更新強化了豐業銀行經濟部的觀點,即下一步很可能是升息——或許很快就會上調。 豐業銀行表示,否則,此次更新將在本週眾多消息中顯得微不足道。加拿大的投資計畫正在逐步推進,但這是一項長期投資,市場可能需要逐步消化其潛在回報。 目前,執行情況和地緣政治風險將佔據主導地位。豐業銀行希望在今年秋季預算案出台時,這兩個方面都能獲得更清晰的指引——至少在方向上是如此。 週二,豐業銀行明確表示,政府願意繼續增加支出。
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