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加拿大豐業銀行的霍爾特表示,加拿大聯邦政府2025-2026財年的赤字可能「達到」目標,甚至可能低於預期。

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-- 加拿大豐業銀行副總裁兼資本市場經濟主管德里克·霍爾特表示,額外的刺激措施、2025-2026財年的最終赤字、對未來赤字和債券發行的“預估”,以及主權財富基金計劃的細節,將是加拿大春季經濟報告和財政更新的“關鍵”內容。該報告將於週二收盤後發布。 「永遠不要認真對待赤字和債券發行的預測;財政部在預測規模和錯過拐點方面的記錄非常糟糕。分析師群體的記錄也一樣糟糕,」他說。 「這是因為意外情況時有發生,例如大宗商品價格暴漲;政治因素會通過支出一些意料之外的改善措施來幹擾預測;而且經濟表現並不總是符合預期,無論好壞。這是一個艱難的行業。比圍繞任何人的預測經常出現的那些誇誇其談要艱難得多。” 然而,霍爾特表示,在這種情況下,加拿大聯邦政府2025-2026財年的赤字可能達到預期,或透過支出全部或大部分意外之財,實現赤字低於預期。他補充說:「物價上漲無疑對政府有利,因為政府對所有價格飆升的大宗商品徵稅,而相關的價格平減指數並非消費者物價指數(CPI),而是廣義GDP平減指數,它作為名義GDP的驅動因素,影響著財政狀況。國內經濟表現可能好於預期。由於各項計劃規模龐大且成本

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