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加拿大豐業銀行發布本週加拿大2月及3月初步GDP數據預覽

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-- 加拿大豐業銀行表示,加拿大將於週四公佈2月的國內生產毛額(GDP)數據以及3月的初步估算數據。 加拿大統計局最初預測2月份GDP季增0.2%。該行指出,更新後的估算值仍與此大致相同,但投資人也能從中獲得有關各行業驅動因素的重要細節。 豐業銀行表示,3月份GDP的初步指引可能更有意義,儘管目前尚無詳細信息,但小幅增長「並非不可能」。 最終結果將進一步影響基於月度GDP的生產/收入基礎對第一季GDP成長的預測。該行指出,實際成長率可能接近加拿大央行1月貨幣政策報告中1.8%的預測值,但該預測值是基於支出基礎的。第四季GDP超過4%的庫存拖累可能會逆轉,成為額外的利多因素。 關鍵在於,根據零售銷售量,第一季消費者商品支出出現了強勁反彈。加拿大豐業銀行補充道,認為經濟對利率不敏感的觀點是不成立的,這種觀點主要是由於對多倫多和溫哥華公寓市場疲軟的原因存在錯誤理解而導致的。

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