-- 加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）在周二公布财政数据后表示，由于财政收入增加，以及支出有所改善，加拿大联邦政府目前预计上一财年的赤字将有所减少，同时本财年的税收基数也将有所提高。 然而，该银行指出，近期宣布的新支出计划旨在支持“依然疲软”的经济，加上周二公布的其他一些措施，意味着支出也将增加。因此，与2025年预算相比，2026/27财年及以后的赤字预测变化不大。 目前预计2025/26财年的赤字为669亿加元，比去年预算的预期减少了115亿加元。财政收入，尤其是所得税收入，增加了70亿加元，而直接项目支出则减少了140亿加元。 然而，加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）指出，由于与员工福利相关的67亿加元支出被重新归类为精算净亏损，因此并未对整体预算赤字产生影响，这一支出数字在一定程度上被夸大了。 尽管起点有所改善，但自去年预算以来宣布的新措施（这些措施在周二的更新中首次纳入考量）意味着，2026/27财年的预计赤字与2025年预算相比几乎没有变化。该银行表示，赤字为653亿加元，略低于名义国内生产总值的2%，仅比上一年略低。 该银行还指出，长期预测也显示，赤字将与之前的预测接近，因为更高的收入基数继续被周二以及前几周/几个月宣布的一些措施所抵消。 2028/29财年，债务占GDP的比率将从41.1%上升至41.9%的峰值，尽管这一峰值较2025年预算案预测值低近1.5个百分点，这主要是由于名义GDP的向上修正。 加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）补充道，预算预测基于对近期经济增长乏力的预期，但预计2027年及以后将有所改善。今年的实际GDP增长预测为1.1%，2027年为1.9%，与2025年预算案相比变化不大。但由于近期油价上涨，名义GDP的预测值有所提高（2026年为4.0%，此前为3.0%）。 尽管2026/27财年的预算赤字与2025年预算案相比变化不大，但由于去年的赤字较小，本年度的融资需求略低于最初的预期。据加拿大帝国商业银行 (CIBC) 称，债券发行量预计仍将维持在 2980 亿美元，借款变化需要通过减少国库券发行量来弥补。
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