-- 加拿大帝國商業銀行（CIBC）在周二公佈財政數據後表示，由於財政收入增加，以及支出有所改善，加拿大聯邦政府目前預計上一財年的赤字將有所減少，同時本財年的稅收基數也將有所提高。 然而，該銀行指出，近期宣布的新支出計畫旨在支持「仍然疲軟」的經濟，加上週二公佈的其他一些措施，意味著支出也將增加。因此，與2025年預算相比，2026/27財政年度及以後的赤字預測變化不大。 目前預計2025/26財年的赤字為669億加元，比去年預算的預期減少了115億加元。財政收入，尤其是所得稅收入，增加了70億加元，而直接項目支出則減少了140億加元。 然而，加拿大帝國商業銀行（CIBC）指出，由於與員工福利相關的67億加元支出被重新歸類為精算淨虧損，因此並未對整體預算赤字產生影響，這一支出數字在一定程度上被誇大了。 儘管起點有所改善，但自去年預算以來宣布的新措施（這些措施在周二的更新中首次納入考量）意味著，2026/27財年的預計赤字與2025年預算相比幾乎沒有變化。該銀行表示，赤字為653億加元，略低於名目國內生產毛額的2%，僅比前一年略低。 該銀行還指出，長期預測也顯示，赤字將與先前的預測接近，因為更高的收入基數繼續被周二以及前幾週/幾個月宣布的一些措施所抵消。 2028/29財年，債務佔GDP的比率將從41.1%上升至41.9%的峰值，儘管這一峰值較2025年預算案預測值低近1.5個百分點，這主要是由於名義GDP的向上修正。 加拿大帝國商業銀行（CIBC）補充道，預算預測是基於對近期經濟成長乏力的預期，但預計2027年及以後將有所改善。今年的實質GDP成長預測為1.1%，2027年為1.9%，與2025年預算案相比變化不大。但由於近期油價上漲，名目GDP的預測值已提高（2026年為4.0%，此前為3.0%）。 儘管2026/27財政年度的預算赤字與2025年預算案相比變化不大，但由於去年的赤字較小，本年度的融資需求略低於最初的預期。據加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 稱，債券發行量預計仍將維持在 2,980 億美元，借款變化需要透過減少國庫券發行量來彌補。
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