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加拿大皇家银行表示,随着暂时性拖累因素消退,加拿大经济在2月份保持增长势头。

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-- 加拿大皇家银行(RBC)周四表示,随着人口增长放缓,预计人均经济增长将持续改善。同时指出,从季度来看,加拿大商业活动基本符合其温和扩张的基本预期,第一季度GDP增速略高于RBC自身预测的1.3%年化GDP增速,也高于加拿大央行在4月份货币政策报告中预测的1.5%。 对于加拿大央行,RBC的基本预期保持不变。RBC预计加拿大央行将在2026年剩余时间内维持利率不变,但同时指出,央行在4月份的会议上表示,将密切关注剔除能源价格后的基本通胀指标的变化,以及中东持续冲突导致能源成本上涨对整体经济增长的影响。 加拿大2月份国内生产总值环比增长0.2%,与加拿大统计局的初步估计和RBC的预期相符。随着1月份汽车行业的暂时性中断逐渐消退,商品生产和服务业均对经济增长做出了贡献。制造业和批发贸易在汽车生产从此前的车型换代停产中恢复正常后出现反弹,零售业GDP增长0.2%,表明消费者支出持续保持韧性。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)指出,2月份的疲软主要集中在建筑业、公共部门以及娱乐业的进一步下滑,后者是由于奥运会期间NHL比赛停摆两周所致。 展望未来,3月份GDP的初步估计值“基本保持不变”。RBC表示,这些早期估计值极易被修正,但3月份的早期指标表明,增长势头在第一季度末保持稳定。 3月份,工作时长小幅增长0.2%,制造业初步销售额增长3.5%——部分原因是油价上涨,但也与汽车生产的进一步复苏相符。RBC指出,剔除石油及相关产品后,批发销售额初步值也增长了1.3%。

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